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Value Test - 8th Aug


15.40 Newcastle

Discression is at 4/1 and 5.4. He may be progressive but is still a maiden and maidens do not have great records in handicaps. He has a chance taking potential into account but I see him as no more than a “saver”.

Eastward Ho may be better value at similar odds of 4/1 and 5.5 as he finished 3rd last time out and the second horse Venutius finished close up on his next run off 5lbs higher. Both horses raced up with a contested pace and did well to hold their positions. Venutius’s last run was a similar battling performance after doing the best of those that raced prominently. If the pace is not so hot today or he can settle just off the pace Eastward Ho may well win.

Who’s Shirl has some appeal at much bigger odds of 18/1 and 22 (BF place 5.0). She has run once this season and comes back after 74 days off. She has won after a two month lay off before. She has dropped by 11lbs since the start of last season and is capable of running well and is worth an each way bet.

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