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Value Test - 4th Aug

04/08/12

19.00 Lingfield

Macchiara is the favourite at 3/1 and 4.0. This looks no more than ok for a maiden winner entering a handicap against older horses for the first time. She is unexposed so can improve but there may be value in looking at Patrick Chaming’s two runners.

Eager To Bow has good form on the all-weather and has a sound chance at 6/1 and 8.6. He has won his last two races and has been raised 4 lbs.

Scottish Glen may be slightly better value at 8/1 and 9.0. He has also won his last two races on the all-weather but he has not been raised in the weights. He won off 74 achieving a good speed figure last time but runs off 67 now on turf.

The handicapper obviously thinks he is not the same horse on turf but there doesn’t seem to be enough evidence to say that he cannot perform on turf. His last run on turf was off 67 and he was beaten 3.5L. The run before that on the AW was off 70 and he was beaten 2.25L. Before that he was beaten 15L on turf off 70 and prior to that 11.5L on the AW off 70. He has only had 3 other runs on turf early in his career. There is another apparent negative as he hasn’t run since his win in May but this came after a lay off after a January win so he can run well fresh.

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