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Value Test - 11th Aug


15.10 Redcar

Pearl Nation is unexposed and the horses he beat last time out into second and third both won handicaps in their next runs. He is 7/2 with most books but looks value at 5.4 on Betfair.

Illustrious Prince is the second favourite at 9/2 and 6.2. The only real positive I can see is his return to 7f and the fact he is 7lbs lower than his last run over the distance. It is not impossible that he can return to that form but I would be looking for a slightly bigger price.

Sound Amigo finished second at Thirsk over 6f and if he can reproduce that over 7f he may be value at 10/1 and 9.8. He has gone up 2lbs but won over 7f on turf last season.

A possible long shot is Act Your Shoe Size at 14/1 to 20/1 and 18 ( 5.2 BF place). She was beaten 40L last time over 1m 3f but won over 1m the time before and 1m 1f before that. She has gone up 6lbs for her last win but may still be improving. She likes to lead but I don’t think she has to as she was headed in her last win but fought back. The biggest worries are her outside draw and the drop back to 7f. The changes of distance may be a worry along with the presence of Celtic Sultan, an habitual front runner in stall 1 while she is in 14, but the price is big enough to warrant a small speculative each way bet.

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