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Value Test - 10th Aug

10/08/12

16.00 Musselburgh

Green Howard at 3/1 and 4.4 may still be progressive but has been beaten twice off today’s rating in class 3 handicaps. He may have had excuses as he may have been on the wrong side of the course and may well do better on today’s faster going.

Al Muheer also has a good chance and at 7/2 and 5.4 looks value. He is on 89 and has run close twice off this mark recently. There is not much to choose between the two if we acknowledge Green Howard’s potential but I am trying to make most of my profit from Al Muheer and am using Green Howard as “insurance”.

Of the rest, Vito Volterra at 8/1 and 8.6 has been running well but he has made all the running in all of his wins and with Polish World in the field I think he will find it difficult today.

Copperwood seems to have been revitalised by Mark Johnston and a change of running style saw him race up front last time out to win at Newmarket. He looks not too far away from value at around 9 on Betfair. If he gets much bigger he may be worth a small bet and a drifting Mark Johnston horse is nothing to worry about. The stable does not bet so it does not generally mean the horse has less chance.

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