This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their January 2012 newsletter.
This follows the same analysis format as the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “A Template For Race Analysis”.
In last month’s article I gave a general idea of the way that I operate. In this article I would like to go into more detail about how I conduct a pre-race analysis showing the factors I considered in a recent race. I will also give an insight into the post-race analysis showing how I would allocate ratings to each horse and also make some general predictions about future prospects for each of the horses.
PRE-RACE ANALYSIS
In order to ascertain whether I feel a horse can win off today’s mark or not I have put together a table for easy reference showing my analysis of the 14.55 at Wolverhampton on Monday 26th December. This is followed by more detailed comments on each horse.
I chose this race purely because it was the highest grade handicap for older horses on the card.
The horses are shown in finishing order and the column headed BHA is the Official rating for the race.
RAT is my assessment of the horse’s potential performance on the day.
SPD is the horse’s potential speed figure related to the class of race so a 2 means that the horse is capable of running to a Class 2 par figure.
COMMENTS are a note of additional factors to consider.
RAT +/- a plus means that I am confident that the horse is capable of winning off today’s mark. If the RAT is below the BHA I would prefer a higher speed figure than I would for a rating that is above the BHA. A minus means that I have serious doubts and a ? means that the figures are not so reliable for a reason mentioned in the comments. Similar comments apply to the SPD +/- and COM +/-.
14.55 Wolverhampton 26th Dec 2011
9.5f Class 4
| Pos | Horse | sp | bha | Rat | Rat +/- | Spd | Spd +/- | Com +/- | Comments |
| 1 | Opus Maximus | 7 | 75 | 75 | + | 5 | - | ? | Last adequate speed fig Jul 2010 |
| 2 | Chosen Forever | 7.5 | 79 | 78 | + | 3/4 | + | ||
| 3 | Follow The Flag | 20 | 80 | 78 | + | 2 | + | ? | Slight doubt over drop in trip. |
| 4 | Honey Of A Kitten | 25 | 82 | 76 | - | ? | ? | - | Ex Irish, 1st run for new trainer, 3 months off, few Irish spd figs available |
| 5 | Gritstone | 3.5 | 81 | 79 | + | 2 | + | ||
| 6 | Jordaura | 16 | 77 | 74 | - | 5 | - | ||
| 7 | Snow Dancer | 7.5 | 79 | 78 | + | 3 | + | ||
| 8 | Hidden Glory | 20 | 79 | 74 | ? | 4 | ? | ? | May have deteriorated since March. |
| 9 | Jawaab | 50 | 74 | ? | - | 4/5 | ? | Has been running over longer distances. | |
| 10 | Fastnet Storm | 6.5 | 78 | ? | - | 5 | - | ? | Needs to lead |
| 11 | Fakhuur | 2.75 | 77 | 75 | ? | 5 | ? | ? | Form in small field fillies’ handicap may be unreliable. May be able to improve on speed figures |
Brief summary of each of the runners.
OPUS MAXIMUS – Is normally held up but in his last run he made rapid progress to lead with 6f to go so we can probably forget that run. In his previous run he had finished a head second and I rated him 75. He runs off 75 today and has a recent speed figure at Class 5 level. While he can win off 75 I would prefer a higher speed figure to be confident of him being a leading contender and his last adequate Class 4 speed figure was achieved in July 2010.
CHOSEN FOREVER – Last time out was beaten by over 3l but I rated him 77 and the time before he won with a rating of 78. He runs off 79 today and my assessment of 78 combined with a speed figure almost up to Class 3 level marks him out as a leading contender.
FOLLOW THE FLAG – Running off 80 today I rated him 78 last time out. We need to see a better than Class 4 speed figure to give him a leading chance. He ran slightly below Class 4 level 3 runs ago but ran a Class 2 figure on the AW in February but had 11 poor runs on turf before having 6 runs on the AW. Normally this would mean that I would say that his speed figures do not come up to standard but he is a better horse on the AW. Without even considering my ratings we can see this by looking at his BHA ratings. During his spell on the turf his mark decreased from 88 to 66 but his mark upon resuming on the AW was 75 so the handicapper has acknowledged this fact. I am therefore discounting his turf form and this means that the Class 2 speed figure is more recent and therefore lends weight to his case to be treated as a contender. A slight doubt is that his last 2 runs have been over 12f and 11f at Southwell so the drop back to 9.5f may not be to his advantage.
HONEY OF A KITTEN – First run for new stable having been bought from Ireland. Runs off 82 and ran to 85 4 runs ago in July. Has since been beaten 67 lengths, 10l and 14l so cannot seriously be considered.
GRITSTONE – Runs off 81 having run to a 79 last time out which is backed up by a Class 2 speed figure the time before so he is a leading contender.
JORDAURA – Ran to 75 on his penultimate run but ran below that level last time out. Has recently run to only Class 5 speed and we have to go back to Sep 2010 for an adequate figure. No real reason to expect a big run.
SNOW DANCER – Last time out was a conditions race with horses rated in the 90’s. A case could be made for a rating well above today’s mark of 79 but it would not be wise to take the form at face value. We can say that it was a good run and we can take the 78 achieved on the previous run as the expected performance for today. This is backed up by a Class 3 speed figure to make her a leading contender on form with Chosen Forever.
HIDDEN GLORY – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten by 44l and 10l on his last two starts. Won off 70 3 starts ago on turf but may have deteriorated since running in a group 3 on the AW in March.
JAWAAB – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten a total of over 100l on his last five starts. He has also been running over further.
FASTNET STORM – Made all to win off 86 in Nov 2010 but has been heavily beaten in his last four starts. He also needs to lead to win and cannot be considered even though he is coming down the handicap.
FAKHUUR – Has only run 4 times winning last time out achieving a rating of 75 from me. Now runs off 77 but has not yet achieved an adequate speed figure. Can improve but the win was at Southwell in a small field of fillies so would not want to take a short price.
When we look at the pluses and minuses we see that the handicap ratings show that Opus Maximus, Chosen Forever, Follow The Flag, Gritstone and Snow Dancer are the horses to consider further. We therefore look at the speed figures and Opus Maximus appears to be lacking in this respect so we can focus on the other four possibles. There is little to separate the others but there is a slight doubt about Follow The Flag dropping in trip so we would be looking for a bigger price about him than the others.
In order to dot the I’s and cross the T’s the following table looks at the likely pace of the race. I look at the in running comments from the last 3 races of each horse and assess the likely racing style.
H = Held Up, M = Mid Div, P = Pressing the pacemakers, L = Lead
| POS | DRAW | HORSE | PREDICTED | ACTUAL |
| 1 | 10 | Opus Maximus | H | H |
| 2 | 8 | Chosen Forever | P | P/L |
| 3 | 9 | Follow The Flag | H | M/P |
| 4 | 3 | Honey Of A Kitten | M | M |
| 5 | 6 | Gritstone | P | P |
| 6 | 4 | Jordaura | H | H |
| 7 | 5 | Snow Dancer | H | H |
| 8 | 7 | Hidden Glory | M | H |
| 9 | 11 | Jawaab | M | M |
| 10 | 4 | Fastnet Storm | L | L |
| 11 | 2 | Fakhuur | P | P |
It can be seen that the only habitual front runner was Fastnet Storm. This is normally a pointer to a horse having a good chance to get a soft lead and to steal the race but his form has been so poor that it is easy to dismiss his chance. There were 3 horses that like to press the pace in Chosen Forever, Gritstone and Fakhuur so these may well be in the best position to attack when Fastnet Storm runs out of steam. There were 4 hold up horses who may well be at a disadvantage if the pace is slow up front in Opus Maximus, Follow The Flag, Jordaura and Snow Dancer.
Taking this additional pace information into account our decision to discount Opus Maximus on grounds of speed figures appears to be backed up by the likelihood of a less than breakneck pace. Snow Dancer and Follow The Flag’s chances can be downgraded so we would need a decent price to get involved but Chosen Forever and Gritstone look like fairly decent propositions if the price is right.
The sp forecast prices of our 5 original shortlisted runners: – Opus Maximus 7/1, Chosen Forever 6/1, Follow The Flag 12/1, Gritstone 3/1, Snow Dancer 7/1.
Betfair prices @ 2.15 pm ; OM 9.80, CF 10.50, FTF 20.00, G 4.30, SD 10.5
Betfair SP; OM 9.92, CF 8.27, FTF 27.27, G 4.39, SD 13.37
The final decision on what bets to strike depend solely on the price.
Our main selections were Chosen Forever and Gritstone but we can see that Chosen Forever offers the best value if we rate the two horses close together and Chosen Forever was available at 10.5 so that was my main bet on the race and I did not want to back Gritstone at around 3/1 indeed I regarded Gritstone as lay material at less than 3/1.
Our other potential bets at bigger prices were Follow The Flag and Snow Dancer. Snow Dancer’s negative was the potential slow pace but I regarded her as pretty close to Chosen Forever otherwise so I had a small saver on her at 10.5 just in case the pace was strong and a hold up horse was able to make ground to win. Follow The Flag’s doubt was the drop in trip but at around 20 I thought it was worth a small bet. He finished 3rd at a BF place SP of 7.67.
It is also worth looking at the prices of horses we have discounted as it is often possible to find a decent lay bet. Fakhuur had doubts around the standard of the race she won at Southwell yet started 11/4 favourite. She faded from the home turn to finish last.
It can be seen that the predicted pace is very similar to the actual pace with Fastnet Storm making the early running and the only real differences between predicted and actual pace were Chosen Forever taking over the lead at halfway and going for home very early. Follow The Flag was also allowed to race closer to the pace than normal and took closer order after three furlongs.
POST RACE ANALYSIS AND RATINGS
When it comes to assessing this particular race and allocating ratings the main thing to consider is the effect that running styles had on performance. There were just a couple of minor hard luck stories and bad trips so the effect of pace is the main factor to adjust for.
The following table shows the original BHA figure and my original Rating then the adjustment for the effect of pace and other factors and the adjusted rating.
| Horse | bha | Rating | Adj | Adj Rating | max win | Class | other | |
| Opus Maximus | 75 | 77 | 2 | 79 | 80 | decent pace | ||
| Chosen Forever | 79 | 79 | 2 | 81 | 82 | obvious potential | ||
| Follow The Flag | 80 | 78 | 78 | 80 | decent pace | |||
| Honey Of A Kitten | 82 | 80 | 80 | 80 | change of scenery may have helped- drop in handicap may also help | |||
| Gritstone | 81 | 78 | 2 | 80 | 80 | |||
| Jordaura | 77 | 72 | 2 | 74 | 74 | 5 | may need drop in class | |
| Snow Dancer | 79 | 73 | 73 | ? | 78 | decent pace | ||
| Hidden Glory | 79 | 67 | 4 | 71 | 71 | 5 | may need drop in class | |
| Jawaab | 74 | 56 | 56 | ? | not looking likely | |||
| Fastnet Storm | 78 | 48 | 48 | ? | not looking likely and needs to lead | |||
| Fakhuur | 77 | 40 | 40 | ? | 75 | 5 | case to ignore today’s run but may need return to Southwell and drop to class 5 | |
First of all we will consider the pace aspect to the race. It would be easy to assume that because Fastnet Storm was the only front runner the pace was slow and the hold up horses were disadvantaged and their performances need to be upgraded. I am not sure this is the case however as the winner came from last to first having had a dream run up the inside rail. Chosen Forever went to the front in the back straight and kicked for home rounding the home turn. I tend to think that this made the pace reasonable and that no particular running style was unduly favoured.
I have upgraded Chosen Forever’s performance slightly as he went for home very early and a more patient ride may have allowed him to hold on under normal circumstances.
I have also upgraded the winner’s rating slightly as he won with something in hand and he has won off higher ratings in the past so it is not unreasonable to think he may be able to improve back to his previous level.
OTHER ADJUSTMENTS
GRITSTONE – was a little keen and raced quite wide round the home turn so he has been upgraded slightly.
JORDAURA – was messed around a little coming into the straight and again 1f out.
SNOW DANCER – never had a proper clear run round the final bend and although my overall view is that hold up horses were not disadvantaged it is not wise to be too dogmatic so I am prepared to consider forgetting this run – hence the ? – if she next runs in a race where there is likely to be a decent pace to aim at.
HIDDEN GLORY – raced widest of all round the home turn.
FAKHUUR – Faded around the home turn. Although we had doubts about her previous win and may have been tempted to lay her as a false favourite this run may well have been too bad to be true so I reserve the right to ignore the run in future.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
In an attempt to provide some guidance for the future I’ve shown the rating I think each horse could win off in the near future in ordinary handicaps. The key will be the available prices.
OPUS MAXIMUS – Will be going up the handicap and will be running in Class 4 and above but today’s race saw him achieve a solid Class 4 speed figure so he may be able to win off 80 given a decent pace.
CHOSEN FOREVER – Has obvious potential to win off around 82 in Class 4 having run a recent borderline Class 3 speed figure. He will be a leading contender off 82 especially at Wolves.
FOLLOW THE FLAG – Has the ability to win off 80 in a Class 3 or 4 being capable of a Class 2 speed figure but needs a good pace or a slight change in tactics to sit more prominently. However I would still not want to be backing him at too short a price.
HONEY OF A KITTEN – The change of scenery may have worked and he may not need to drop too much in the weights to be competitive. Speed figures are a bit of an unknown due to his Irish form but David Evans may be able to get some improvement out of him.
GRITSTONE – Possible contender off 80 in Class 3 or 4 due to his Class 2 speed figure.
JORDAURA – May need to drop down to class 5 off 74 to be competitive.
SNOW DANCER – Should be competitive off 78 in class 4 if making allowances for today’s effort if a decent pace looks likely.
HIDDEN GLORY – Definitely appears to need a drop to Class 5 and a drop in the handicap to around 71.
JAWAAB – Gave no cause for optimism in the near future.
FASTNET STORM – Looks unlikely to be able to capitalise in the near future even if he gets a soft lead.
FAKHUUR – Even if we forgive today’s run she needs to drop in class and maybe in the handicap to be competitive bearing in mind she won a fillies race at Southwell which may not have been the strongest.
In next month’s article I will review the subsequent runs of these horses in the light of my predictions for their future prospects and we will examine the question of value and how we can begin to quantify each horse’s chance of winning a particular race.