I always try to emphasise obtaining value but it is time consuming and never easy to put an exact figure on any horse’s chances. Rather than compiling a full betting forecast perhaps the simplest way to assess value is by finding form which others may have overlooked or is not so recent. There may be a couple of not so obvious value bets today.
17.15 Kempton 5f Class 4
In an earlier article (A Template For Race Analysis) I dealt with the 6f Wol 19.50 on 19/11/11. Here is what I said about Sir Geoffrey’s future prospects.
“He has a class 2 speed figure and may well find more for dropping to 5f with fewer potential front runners hence a possible winning mark of 85.”
Since then he has run twice over 6f. The first of these was at LIngfield where his jockey took him towards the rail from stall 2 and was well up with the pace.
This was my summary of his performance in that race.
02/12 14.55 – Sir Geoffrey was well above the value price on Betfair but ran as if it was an outing to lose a couple of pounds before a serious attempt at 5f. The four horses that were prominent, Cadeaux Pearl, Sir Geoffrey, Billy Red and Smoky Cloud, were the last four to finish so it is possible that they went too fast in front and may be excused these seemingly poor runs.
His next run was over 6f at Wolverhampton where he went off too fast and the race can be overlooked. Cadeaux Pearl won his next race and Smoky Cloud has also put in an improved performance since and runs in the 18.45 at Kempton today.
This means that we can discount his last two runs and he is running off 79 having come down the handicap which makes him appear to be a leading contender today but we must look at the opposition.
Sir Geoffrey likes to race up with the pace but is drawn wider than 2 of 3 potential front runners, Cadeaux Pearl and Island Legend. Best Trip is drawn one stall wider but is an habitual front runner and may well go off too fast in an attempt to get to the rail.
The race looks competitive with 2 last time out winners in Cadeaux Pearl and Desert Strike plus the favourite Earlsmedic who came to win his last race but was pipped on the line by a well-in Richard Fahey horse.
There will be easier races to win so I would suggest a small each way bet on Sir Geoffrey (currently 10/1 to 12/1) as additionally there has been money for both of Milton Bradley’s horses. One of whom, Volcanic Dust, finished last on its last run at 20/1 having been beaten only 2 lengths on its previous run by Diamond Charlie who was 4/1 for this race before being withdrawn. Desert Strike has also been backed partially due to being Hugh Taylor’s selection.
18.45 Kempton 6f Class 6
Smoky Cloud won over 7f off 72 at Gowran in September but then ran poorly on soft ground before joining Amy Weaver. He has run four times on the all-weather and has dropped from 79 to 65. The run mentioned previously was his second all weather race. Since then he made the running but faded over 7f and last time out finished last of 12 over 6f but was beaten only 4.5 lengths.
If he is learning to settle and the last run can be improved upon he is worth a small each way interest having dropped down from Class 4 to Class 6. (currently ranges from 9/1 to 12/1). He is well drawn in 3 and the cutaway will help if his jockey decides to sit behind the pace rather than taking the lead.The race is just an ordinary Class 6 so if he has returned to his best the exact strength of the opposition should not matter too much.