Qeethaara has solid form at Kempton and is a big price at around 7/2 and 5.0 if she can reproduce that form at Lingfield.

Midas Moment and Zing Wing’s last runs were too bad to be true. Midas Moment looks big at around 9/2 and 5.1 and Zing Wing is around [...]]]> 15.50 Lingfield

Qeethaara has solid form at Kempton and is a big price at around 7/2 and 5.0 if she can reproduce that form at Lingfield.

Midas Moment and Zing Wing’s last runs were too bad to be true. Midas Moment looks big at around 9/2 and 5.1 and Zing Wing is around where it should be on Betfair at 4.4 and for the cautious looks worth a saver at its current price.

The big price here is Amenable at 16/1 and 22.0. The Betfair place odds are currently 5.9.

Prime Exhibit and Jeannie Galloway are nearing value along with a more risky Captain Dimitrios. Laylas Hero is about where it should be and Castles In The Air looks [...]]]> 15.20 Musselburgh

The big price here is Amenable at 16/1 and 22.0. The Betfair place odds are currently 5.9.

Prime Exhibit and Jeannie Galloway are nearing value along with a more risky Captain Dimitrios. Laylas Hero is about where it should be and Castles In The Air looks a bit short.

There will be plenty of pace on in this race which makes Amenable and Captain Dimitrios slightly riskier than normal as they both like to be prominent.

This is extremely tight for a 7 runner race.

Drawnfromthepast’s recent form has been in claimers so may be difficult to equate. Clear Praise’s best form has been on the all weather and he may need a decent pace to be seen at his best.

Triple Dream looks to be the [...]]]> 15.40 Folkestone

This is extremely tight for a 7 runner race.

Drawnfromthepast’s recent form has been in claimers so may be difficult to equate. Clear Praise’s best form has been on the all weather and he may need a decent pace to be seen at his best.

Triple Dream looks to be the price it should be but Clear Praise and Sulis Minerva look value at current prices and Drawnfromthepast is nearing value on Betfair.

Prices updated at 14.45

Chjimes looks slightly big at 8.0 on Betfair but the rest are around the price they should be.

All have solid form but Baby Dottie may be unexposed at 5f and may be able to improve on its last run at Kempton over 5f. Chjimes has been [...]]]> 16.30 Lingfield

Prices updated at 14.45

Chjimes looks slightly big at 8.0 on Betfair but the rest are around the price they should be.

All have solid form but Baby Dottie may be unexposed at 5f and may be able to improve on its last run at Kempton over 5f. Chjimes has been largely forgiven his last run at Wolves where he has not won in 15 tries. Lesleys Choice may be able to improve on its last run which came after a layoff but Dorothys Dancing is the one to beat.

In last month’s article we looked at the conundrum of value and I explained the pitfalls of trying to produce a full betting forecast or tissue from scratch. I suggested that it would be too time consuming and [...]]]> This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their March 2012 newsletter.

In last month’s article we looked at the conundrum of value and I explained the pitfalls of trying to produce a full betting forecast or tissue from scratch. I suggested that it would be too time consuming and impractical for most people to even consider embarking upon that route. We need a simple and quick means of estimating the true chance of each horse so that we can compare the actual prices on offer.

We have looked at analysing races in a systematic way which gives us a list of possibles and we can even rank the horses in order of their likelihood of winning the race. This analysis was based upon my own handicap ratings which are not available to everyone so we need a method which uses published ratings. I have chosen the Racing Post Ratings, not because they are the best but because they are included in Raceform Interactive which I use to store my own ratings.

I am using the RP ratings in a similar way to how I use my own ratings but in a simpler, less subjective and hopefully clearer way. The main principle is that of recent form being more relevant than historic form. We have seen examples in past articles where we can discount poor runs but in these examples I will keep things as simple as possible so that the basic principles are clear. I have therefore taken the RP ratings at face value without delving too deeply looking for mitigating circumstances.

I also use the Raceform Interactive speed ratings, Course and Distance form, recent wins, and pace and draw as additional variables in allocating a ranking to each horse. When I produce my own tissue I use my past data to produce percentage figures for combinations of ratings which forms an algorithm which calculates a price for each horse. We have no past data and are trying to quickly assess each horse’s chance so we need a structure to build our prices around so I have some statistics for the win percentages of favourites in handicaps which we will use as our starting point.We will also be using the Racing Post SP forecast as a check and as a pointer to potential opportunities.

We will look in some detail at the Wolves 20.50 on the 23^rd February. The table below shows the last few Racing Post ratings achieved by each horse. These figures have been adjusted for the weight each horse is set to carry so the higher the figure the better the performance in the context of today’s race.

We are looking to ascertain the level that each horse may be capable of achieving today so a brilliant run 4 runs ago followed by 3 very poor performances is not likely to be as auspicious as a solid run last time out. We are therefore going to adjust the ratings according to when they were achieved. The key is not to over –react to poor performances or good performances. I therefore “chip away” at previous ratings. We take last time out as the bench mark performance. In effect this is the least we would expect the horse to do today. We will reduce previous runs by a certain number of points depending on their recency and the level of the last time out figure. We have previously discussed discounting sub-standard runs where there are valid excuses but we will ignore that just now for simplicity’s sake.

I have used a similar method for adjusting the RP ratings to the one I use for adjusting my own ratings. Hopefully the table clearly shows that the two horses to be interested in are the ones with good last time out performances.

After adjusting all the ratings in this way I have ranked each horse and we can see that Garstang comes out top by 2 points from Lastkingofscotland. Both of these horses achieved their rating last time out so they are very strong contenders. The next two, Rowan Spirit and Street Power, are only one point behind but their form is more remote so they are less strong as their ability to run to the adjusted rating is less certain.

Without reference to anything other than the RP Ratings and the “recent form” concept we can see that Garstang should be a clear favourite from Lastkingofscotland with the rest some way behind. The RP forecast has Lastkingofscotland favourite at 15/8 and Garstang at 2/1 with the rest in double figures so we are definitely on the right track. We have taken the RP ratings and the RP forecast so why is Garstang top on ratings but not in the forecast when presumably the compiler had access to the RP ratings? Looking at some of the other variables we have discussed in past articles may help.

Speed figures are ok for all the horses in the race. Lastkingofscotland won last time out which is a positive as last time out winners win more often than any other finishing position in handicaps. Garstang won on his second last run so again this is a positive. Both horses have won over course and distance. There is a bigger distinction when we look at pace and draw as Lastkingofscotland is well drawn and may well get an easy lead. An easy lead is the most dangerous thing in racing so we can upgrade his chances slightly but we may consider the two horses as having roughly equal chances.

We could leave our assessment at that and look for the two main contenders at prices above the sp forecast of roughly 2/1 about each horse. It is generally agreed that the market is a pretty reliable guide to the actual chance of each horse. At least it is after we have deducted the bookmakers’ profit margin or the “overround”. If we converted all of the SP’s of a race into the percentage chance of success e.g. 2/1 is 33% or 1/3 and 6/4 is 40% or 4/10 the total will be more than 100%. This is because a true even money shot (50%) may be priced up at 10/11 (11/21 = 52.4%) building in a profit for the book. The RP forecast builds in the overround so we need to be aware of this and be able to compensate when we make our betting decisions. If the “overround” is approximately 10% then the “true” chance of winning equates to 2.31 to 1 rather than 2/1 and if we add 15% profit onto 2.31 we need 2.66 to obtain “value”.

There are some pitfalls which we may have identified with using the RP f/c as our arbiter of value. Firstly we have seen that it is entirely possible that the compiler may overlook the RP ratings and make a mistake in making a clear second best on ratings the forecast favourite (although this time the pace aspect may have swayed the argument). We are using the ratings and forecast from the same source so we need to use different publishers for the ratings and forecast so it is a true check. We are using information which is available to many people and they may also be using the RP f/c as their guide to value which increases competition in our area. There are therefore advantages to be had in compiling our own ratings and/or betting forecast.

It may be useful to take things a stage further and take a look at “plucking our own prices out of thin air”. We are betting in handicap races and we are concentrating on the most likely winners according to our ratings backed up by our other secondary variables for fine tuning.

It therefore seems to make sense to look at the winning percentages of SP favourites in handicaps for 3yo’s and above. This will give us the true chance of  favourites winning. The following tables show the true chance of all favourites, 2^nd favs and 3^rd favs by field size for the whole of 2011. In effect this gives us the price an ordinary favourite should be to break even. I have evened out the figures so that the percentages descend eg. The true  for 10 runners is 23.3 and 11 runners 24.1 but it makes more sense to “smooth” the figures.

In an 8 runner race like our example we can see that the favourite wins 30% of races. We would therefore need decimal odds of 3.33 or fractional odds of just over 9/4 to break even. In our race we have two very strong contenders so we would expect them to be shorter than the “average” favourite and the RP forecast backs this idea up. The 2nd favourite in 8 runner races would need to be 9/2 to break even and Lastkingofscotland, second in our rankings, should be much shorter than the average 2^nd favourite. We have said that they should have roughly equal chances so if we follow the general gist of the f/c but put Garstang as favourite in 15/8 and Lastkingofscotland in at 2/1 we have them both at prices which may be too short when they have to compete against each other (also not forgetting that the f/c includes the overround). In effect we have assessed the price of individual horses without looking at the level of competition.

How can we take into account the rest of the field? From my own experience I like the top half of the rankings to account for 75 to 80% of the market. This figure is backed up by looking at the total market percentage of the top 3 in the final column of the previous table. The true chance of half the field winning a 6 runner race is 74%. We can roughly work out the figure for an 8 runner race when we see that the top 3 win 64% of races and that the 3^rd favourite wins 16% of races. Logic suggests that the 4^th favourite would win slightly less than 16% – say 13% and adding this to 64% would give us 77% of 8 runner races being won by the top half of the field.

From the table above we can see that Rowan Spirit is ranked 3^rd and Street Power 4^th. They are both only 1 point behind Lastkingofscotland but their form is not so recent and we have upgraded the former’s chances because of the pace aspect and a success last time out. The RP forecast also suggests that there is a large gap between the top 2 and the rest.We can therefore say that Lastkingofscotland is much better than the normal 18% strike rate of 2^nd favourites and also that Rowan Spirit is much worse than the normal 16% of 3^rd favourites.

If we pitch the 3^rd and 4^th ranked horses in at double figures we can see from the table that if we put the top two in at the shorter prices we have almost 85% of the market invested in the top 4. By increasing the odds on the top 2 we bring this more in line with the 75-80% target. When we add say 15% to our true odds of 3.25 for Garstang we require 3.59 and to Lastkingofscotland’s odds of 3.50 we need 3.88.

In the event Garstang went off at an industry SP of 15/2 and  Betfair SP of 10.10 and won comfortably from Jungle Bay and Lastkingofscotland at an ISP of 9/4 and BSP of 3.77. It is interesting to note that Jungle Bay’s last run was poor enough to be investigated with a view to discounting it. If that had been the case his rating would have been 86 and we would have had a stronger 3^rd favourite which would have increased the required odds on our first two. We would still have seen the value in a bet on Garstang however as his odds were far in excess of our original value price of 3.59.

We can look at the Wolves 19.30 on the 24^th February as an example of a more competitive event.

There are a couple of things to note about how I have arrived at the adjusted ratings. Prince Of Dance was lame after its last run so we can easily discount it, hence the 1 in the recency column. Tevez ran very close last time out to its previous 98 so we can take the 98 as the rating but there is just a slight question mark hence the 1.5 in the recency column.

We have four horses on 98 with Knowe Head as our most likely winner due to being a course and distance winner and having no negatives to his name. Thunderstruck is also a c/d winner but a negative is that with Georgebernardshaw and Yorksters Prince I felt he would be pressed for the lead and hold up horses may be at an advantage. Mullins Way had no positives or negatives and the doubt about Tevez’s last run was outweighed by his hold up style of running. Prince Of Dance was ranked 5^th in preference over Snow Dancer due to the recency of his form. I also felt that the top four were some way clear of the rest as Prince Of Dance had also had a lay off and had not won for quite some time prior to the lay off.

The RP forecast had Prince Of Dance and Thunderstruck at 9/2 with Knowe Head 6/1 followed by Mullins Way and Tevez at 7/1 From our analysis we may assume that Knowe Head is a strong favourite but is also competing against three strong equal 2nd ranked horses. The fav winning percentage for a 9 runner race is 28% which equates to 5/2 to break even.

The following table shows that if we put Knowe Head in at this price and the next 3 in at 9/2 which is the normal 2^nd fav price we have 83% of the market in the first 4 in the betting. If we add in half the percentage of the 5^th ranked to equate to 4.5 out of 9 runners we hit 88% for the top half of the market. Intuitively speaking without any calculations Knowe Head does not look like a 5/2 shot against three 9/2 shots. The gap between them should be much closer. The other two scenarios show Knowe Head at 7/2 and 4/1 which look much more realistic.

If we prefer the 7/2 option for Knowe Head we would need a value price at 15% of 5.03 and at 4/1 the price should be 5.60. The value price for the other contenders would be 6.18.

The result was a win for Knowe Head from Just Bond and Tevez. Tevez was a very big industry 10/1 and 13.50 at Betfair SP. The actual prices of the first 5 in the actual betting are shown below. It is interesting to compare the percentages which illustrates the overround in favour of the bookies.

It is also interesting that at Betfair odds we would have been very close to obtaining value about all four of our contenders. The main reason for this is that Prince Of Dance was drastically overbet and finished next to last.

I hope that this has given you a starting point when trying to assess value. I am certain that this article gives rise to more questions than it answers but at least we can begin to work out what price a favourite should be and expand our analysis from there. We can improve our methods by collecting performance data and comparing the calculated odds with the actual strike rates of runners within fairly narrow odds bands. For example if we had 100 runners at calculated prices between 7/4 and 9/4 averaging 2/1 and we had around 33 winners we would be quite happy with our accuracy.

This article refers to and updates the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “Under The Radar – Detailed Race Analysis”.

Last month’s article consisted of an in depth analysis of the 14.55 Wolverhampton on 26th December.  I also gave some indications [...]]]> This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their February 2012 newsletter.

This article refers to and updates the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “Under The Radar – Detailed Race Analysis”.

Last month’s article consisted of an in depth analysis of the 14.55 Wolverhampton on 26^th December.  I also gave some indications as to the future prospects of the participants.

This time I would like to review the subsequent runs in the light of my predictions and show how we can modify our opinions based on these additional pieces of information bearing in mind that it is usually unwise to overreact to one-off performances – good or bad.

OPUS MAXIMUS – My assessment last time was that he may be able to win off 80 in class 4 with a good pace.

4^th Jan – His next run was off 81 in a class 4 so we would not be looking to support him especially when it looked quite competitive with 13 runners including 3 last time out winners in addition to Opus Maximus, and 3 placed last time out. He started at 8/1 and finished 9^th. Although this was not run at a pace he would appreciate we would consider wanting him to run off 79 in future rather than 80.

14^th Jan – Class 3 off 81 again so we would not consider backing him and he finished 5^th at 16/1 achieving a very good speed figure. Because of this we would stick with 79 as our assessment of a possible winning mark.

19^th Jan – Off 79 in class 4 but it again looked quite competitive with 13 runners including 3 lto winners and 2 lto placed horses yet he started at 9/2. I am not sure we would have been impressed by those odds if he was running off 80 immediately after winning never mind having been beaten twice since. We must downgrade our opinion to around 77 until he shows some close to winning form.

This opinion was backed up by another defeat off 79 and also a failure to win in a claimer.

Since the article was written he has been beaten a further three times in handicaps off 77 and 76.(twice)

CHOSEN FOREVER – A leading contender off 82 in class 4.

19^th Jan – Ran in the same competitive race as Opus Maximus. Running off 79 he seemed to fit the bill as a serious contender and at 11/1 SP looked value but he did not run well. The in running comments said that he did not handle the bend well coming into the straight. I did not immediately think this when watching the race but I am tempted to overlook this run and give him another chance. He will not be going up in the weights so he will have every chance in an ordinary class 4.

FOLLOW THE FLAG – Can win off 80 in class 3 or 4 due to class 2 speed figure but is inconsistent and we need a decent price.

4^th Jan – Started at 25/1 in a class 4 and ran down the field off 80. He is inconsistent so it is usually unwise to downgrade opinion after one poor run.

14^th Jan – Ran off 81 in a class 3 but started at 40/1 and was 2^nd at a Betfair Place SP of 9.80. He also achieved a very good speed figure but I will stick with my opinion that although he can win off around 81/82 I will still require a decent price because of his inconsistency.

Since the article was written he has been beaten over 2m, finished 3^rd at 12/1 over 1m 4f, 3^rd over 7f at 6/1 and been beaten over 1m at 9/1. He remains worth supporting each way at double figure prices over suitable distances, especially when there is the chance of a decent pace.

HONEY OF A KITTEN – A few queries over Irish speed figures but may win off 80 if some improvement can be found by new trainer.

7^th Jan – Competitive class 4 with 3 lto winners and 2 lto placed off 82. Beaten 5.5 lengths so we need to downgrade our expectations a little to 78.

14^th Jan – Competitive class 3 off 80 and was predictably beaten by 11 lengths. He ran a borderline class 4/5 speed figure so all hope is not lost but I think he may need to drop to class 5 so we need to revise our max win rating to 75.

24^th Jan – Class 4 off 78 but was again beaten a long way. We cannot be interested until he shows something closer to a rating of 75.

Since the article was written he has been beaten 14L off 75, 9L off 70, showed an improvement being beaten only 3.5L off 66 and won at 11/4 off 64 after being backed from 8/1.

GRITSTONE – Has not run so remains a possible contender off 80 in Class 3 or 4 due to his Class 2 speed figure.

Since the article was written he was beaten 8L off 81 at Southwell. The Raceform notebook suggested he may have needed the run after a lay off and that he handled the fibresand well. There is no need to give up hope just yet if he sheds a pound or two.

JORDAURA – May need to drop down to class 5 off 74.

4^th Jan – Off 77 in a class 4 beaten 4.5 lengths. May need to lower our expectations to 72 in a class 5.

15^th Jan – Off 75 in a class 4 beaten nearly 8 lengths. The trip of 1m 4f may have been too far so we will stick at 72 in a class 5.

23^rd Jan – Back to 9.5 furlongs in a class 5 off 75 but was beaten 4.5 lengths. Good form is beginning to look remote so although the jockey said the horse hung in the straight we probably need to see another downward revision to 71 in class 5.

Since the article was written he was beaten nearly 7L off 73.

SNOW DANCER – Should be competitive off 78 in a class 4 where a decent pace looks likely.

19^th Jan – Off 78 in a class 4 but was beaten nearly 7 lengths in a less than briskly run race. The pace of the race alone would have tempted me to give her another chance but the jockey also said that she did not travel. We will stick with our assessment of 78 in a class 4.

Since the article was written she was beaten 2.5L off 76. She is still of interest where a decent pace is on the cards.

HIDDEN GLORY – Needs to drop to class 5 and to a rating of 71.

19^th Jan – Off 76 in a class 4 was beaten 2.5 lengths and ran a borderline class 2/3 speed figure. Won off 70 on the turf recently and won off 83 on the all-weather this time last year. Normally we would not get too excited about this kind of good performance as we would not want to be backing a horse that finished 4^th last time out at a shortish price if he went up a pound or two in the weights. However, this return to some kind of form with a good speed figure  coupled with the ability to win off a mark in the 80’s must make him a strong contender in class 4 even if he goes up a couple of pounds to 78.

Since the article was written has been beaten by just over 2L off 75 with Fastnet Storm in close proximity. The second horse has subsequently won a competitive handicap. Still of interest.

JAWAAB – Not worth considering.

16^th Jan – Off 70 in a class 5 over 1m4f and started at 6/1. He was beaten 6.5 lengths so may need to drop a few pounds yet.

Since the article was written he has been beaten 7L off 68 and nearly 6L off 67. He was unbelievably 11/4 in his latest defeat.

FASTNET STORM – Has not run so no change to the original. Looks unlikely to be able to capitalise in the near future even if he gets a soft lead.

Since the article was written he finished very close to Hidden Glory but still failed to win off 74 despite getting an easy lead. Probably still needs to drop a couple of pounds and get his own way in front.

FAKHUUR – Needs to drop to class 5 and maybe return to Southwell.

14^th Jan – Ran in a class 3 off 81 (out of the handicap) so could not be considered. However she was beaten by 7 lengths but achieved a borderline 2/3 speed figure. I would be inclined to take this with a pinch of salt at this stage but she may yet be dangerous dropped to class 5.

OBTAINING VALUE

So far we have looked at how to analyse a race. This allows us to put together a list of contenders and even to put them into a basic ranking from strongest to weakest.  This is fine and will make us better informed than probably 95% of punters. The real question that needs to be addressed in order to join the 2% that make a consistent profit is how can we assess the real chance of each horse?
Only if we know (or make a good estimate of) the real chance can we know at what price to back to obtain value. The solution that I adopted is to perform the kind of analysis I have shown you how to do and from that information I compile a tissue or betting forecast. This then gives me an idea of the price I should accept about each of the runners. The final bets are then dictated by the prices which are available.

In order to put together a forecast you need to select your variables very carefully. By variables I mean factors that influence the outcome of a race. Like going, course, rating, distance etc. You also need to collect data so that you can work out the percentages associated with each factor. For example if you used your own handicap ratings you would need to know for instance what percentage of your top rated horses won and 2^nd top, 3^rd top etc.

You could supplement this by working out what percentage of horses that had won on today’s going actually go on to win. If you had a big enough sample size you could combine how your top rated did when running on favoured going and when not. For instance if your top rated won 20% of all races they may win 25% when proven on the going and only 15% when not proven. This is where it starts to get complicated as the possibilities for combining variables are endless but for the combinations to be meaningful you will need to ensure that you have a large enough amount of data.

Taking a step back you may think that in the pursuit of winners you could restrict your bets to top rated selections because they win at 20% of the time and are the most likely winners of any given race. You will need an average price of 4/1 to break even so it is logical to assume that if you only bet when you can get 9/2 or above you will make a profit. This is not necessarily the case as it is entirely possible that the bigger priced horses have a flaw which the market picks up on but your ratings do not take into account. It may well be true that the best option would be to back those starting below 7/2 as they have market confidence and may well win often enough to make a profit.

The main disadvantage to this approach (even after the successful collection of meaningful data and working out how the variables affect the figures) is that it is time consuming and for most people totally impractical. The solution for most is therefore to find a quicker method of estimating a horse’s chance of winning. We do not have to be totally accurate just more accurate than most punters are.

This is something I will be examining in next month’s article.

I suggested a small each way bet on Sir Geoffrey and he obliged by running 3rd beaten only a neck and a head by his stablemate Cadeaux Pearl. The sp was 12/1 but he started at 15.69 and 4.60 to place on [...]]]> This article is an update to The Value Of Hidden Form – Kem 11/01/12.

I suggested a small each way bet on Sir Geoffrey and he obliged by running 3rd beaten only a neck and a head by his stablemate Cadeaux Pearl. The sp was 12/1 but he started at 15.69 and 4.60 to place on Betfair.

If he does not go up in the weights too much he will be a leading contender next time out over 5f as his wide draw may well have been the difference between victory and defeat this time. Best Trip, as predicted, did too much from his wide draw to get across to lead.

I also suggested a small each way on Smoky Cloud which was unsuccessful. He finished last having pressed the leader until weakening rapidly around 1f out. The interesting point to make is that the first four throughout the race finished as the last four.

This may mean that four of the first five performances need downgrading as they came from off the pace. The exception may be Torres Del Paine who finished second after lying in fifth throughout the race.

I will not be writing Smoky Cloud off just yet as he was still in with a chance with less than 2f to go and probably went off too keenly and too quickly. A couple more pounds off and a big double figure price may well tempt me into another small each way bet.

This follows the same analysis format as the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “A Template For Race Analysis”.

In last month’s article I gave a general idea of the way that I operate. In this article I would like to [...]]]> This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their January 2012 newsletter.

This follows the same analysis format as the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “A Template For Race Analysis”.

In last month’s article I gave a general idea of the way that I operate. In this article I would like to go into more detail about how I conduct a pre-race analysis showing the factors I considered in a recent  race. I will also give an insight into the post-race analysis showing how I would allocate ratings to each horse and also make some general predictions about future prospects for each of the horses.

PRE-RACE ANALYSIS

In order to ascertain whether I feel a horse can win off today’s mark or not I have put together a table for easy reference showing my analysis of the 14.55 at Wolverhampton on Monday 26^th December. This is followed by more detailed comments on each horse.

I chose this race purely because it was the highest grade handicap for older horses on the card.

The horses are shown in finishing order and the column headed BHA is the Official rating for the race.

RAT is my assessment of the horse’s potential performance on the day.

SPD is the horse’s potential speed figure related to the class of race so a 2 means that the horse is capable of running to a Class 2 par figure.

COMMENTS are a note of additional factors to consider.

RAT +/-  a plus means that I am confident that the horse is capable of winning off today’s mark. If the RAT is below the BHA I would prefer a higher speed figure than I would for a rating that is above the BHA. A minus means that I have serious doubts and a ? means that the figures are not so reliable for a reason mentioned in the comments. Similar comments apply to the SPD +/- and COM +/-.

14.55 Wolverhampton 26^th Dec 2011

9.5f Class 4

Brief summary of each of the runners.

OPUS MAXIMUS – Is normally held up but in his last run he made rapid progress to lead with 6f to go so we can probably forget that run. In his previous run he had finished a head second and I rated him 75. He runs off 75 today and has a recent speed figure at Class 5 level. While he can win off 75 I would prefer a higher speed figure to be confident of him being a leading contender and his last adequate Class 4 speed figure was achieved in July 2010.

CHOSEN FOREVER – Last time out was beaten by over 3l but I rated him 77 and the time before he won with a rating of 78. He runs off 79 today and my assessment of 78 combined with a speed figure almost up to Class 3 level marks him out as a leading contender.

FOLLOW THE FLAG – Running off 80 today I rated him 78 last time out. We need to see a better than Class 4 speed figure to give him a leading chance. He ran slightly below Class 4 level 3 runs ago but ran a Class 2 figure on the AW in February but had 11 poor runs on turf before having 6 runs on the AW. Normally this would mean that I would say that his speed figures do not come up to standard but he is a better horse on the AW. Without even considering my ratings we can see this by looking at his BHA ratings. During his spell on the turf his mark decreased from 88 to 66 but his mark upon resuming on the AW was 75 so the handicapper has acknowledged this fact. I am therefore discounting his turf form and this means that the Class 2 speed figure is more recent and therefore lends weight to his case to be treated as a contender. A slight doubt is that his last 2 runs have been over 12f and 11f at Southwell so the drop back to 9.5f may not be to his advantage.

HONEY OF A KITTEN – First run for new stable having been bought from Ireland. Runs off 82 and ran to 85 4 runs ago in July. Has since been beaten 67 lengths, 10l and 14l so cannot seriously be considered.

GRITSTONE – Runs off 81 having run to a 79 last time out which is backed up by a Class 2 speed figure the time before so he is a leading contender.

JORDAURA – Ran to 75 on his penultimate run but ran below that level last time out. Has recently run to only Class 5 speed and we have to go back to Sep 2010 for an adequate figure. No real reason to expect a big run.

SNOW DANCER – Last time out was a conditions race with horses rated in the 90’s. A case could be made for a rating well above today’s mark of 79 but it would not be wise to take the form at face value. We can say that it was a good run and we can take the 78 achieved on the previous run as the expected performance for today. This is backed up by a Class 3 speed figure to make her a leading contender on form with Chosen Forever.

HIDDEN GLORY – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten by 44l and 10l on his last two starts. Won off 70 3 starts ago on turf but may have deteriorated since running in a group 3 on the AW in March.

JAWAAB – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten a total of over 100l on his last five starts. He has also been running over further.

FASTNET STORM – Made all to win off 86 in Nov 2010 but has been heavily beaten in his last four starts. He also needs to lead to win and cannot be considered even though he is coming down the handicap.

FAKHUUR – Has only run 4 times winning last time out achieving a rating of 75 from me. Now runs off 77 but has not yet achieved an adequate speed figure. Can improve but the win was at Southwell in a small field of fillies so would not want to take a short price.

When we look at the pluses and minuses we see that the handicap ratings show that Opus Maximus, Chosen Forever, Follow The Flag, Gritstone and Snow Dancer are the horses to consider further. We therefore look at the speed figures and Opus Maximus appears to be lacking in this respect so we can focus on the other four possibles. There is little to separate the others but there is a slight doubt about Follow The Flag dropping in trip so we would be looking for a bigger price about him than the others.

In order to dot the I’s and cross the T’s the following table looks at the likely pace of the race. I look at the in running comments from the last 3 races of each horse and assess the likely racing style.

H = Held Up, M = Mid Div, P = Pressing the pacemakers, L = Lead

It can be seen that the only habitual front runner was Fastnet Storm. This is normally a pointer to a horse having a good chance to get a soft lead and to steal the race but his form has been so poor that it is easy to dismiss his chance. There were 3 horses that like to press the pace in Chosen Forever, Gritstone and Fakhuur so these may well be in the best position to attack when Fastnet Storm runs out of steam. There were 4 hold up horses who may well be at a disadvantage if the pace is slow up front in Opus Maximus, Follow The Flag, Jordaura and Snow Dancer.

Taking this additional pace information into account our decision to discount Opus Maximus on grounds of speed figures appears to be backed up by the likelihood of a less than breakneck pace. Snow Dancer and Follow The Flag’s chances can be downgraded so we would need a decent price to get involved but Chosen Forever and Gritstone look like fairly decent propositions if the price is right.

The sp forecast prices of our 5 original shortlisted runners: – Opus Maximus 7/1, Chosen Forever 6/1, Follow The Flag 12/1, Gritstone 3/1, Snow Dancer 7/1.

Betfair prices @ 2.15 pm ; OM 9.80, CF 10.50, FTF 20.00, G 4.30, SD 10.5

Betfair SP; OM 9.92, CF 8.27, FTF 27.27, G 4.39, SD 13.37

The final decision on what bets to strike depend solely on the price.

Our main selections were Chosen Forever and Gritstone but we can see that Chosen Forever offers the best value if we rate the two horses close together and Chosen Forever was available at 10.5 so that was my main bet on the race and I did not want to back Gritstone at around 3/1 indeed I regarded Gritstone as lay material at less than 3/1.

Our other potential bets at bigger prices were Follow The Flag and Snow Dancer. Snow Dancer’s negative was the potential slow pace but I regarded her as pretty close to Chosen Forever otherwise so I had a small saver on her at 10.5 just in case the pace was strong and a hold up horse was able to make ground to win. Follow The Flag’s doubt was the drop in trip but at around 20 I thought it was worth a small bet. He finished 3^rd at a BF place SP of 7.67.

It is also worth looking at the prices of horses we have discounted as it is often possible to find a decent lay bet. Fakhuur had doubts around the standard of the race she won at Southwell yet started 11/4 favourite. She faded from the home turn to finish last.

It can be seen that the predicted pace is very similar to the actual pace with Fastnet Storm making the early running and the only real differences between predicted and actual pace were Chosen Forever taking over the lead at halfway and going for home very early. Follow The Flag was also allowed to race closer to the pace than normal and took closer order after three furlongs.

POST RACE ANALYSIS AND RATINGS

When it comes to assessing this particular race and allocating ratings the main thing to consider is the effect that running styles had on performance. There were just a couple of minor hard luck stories and bad trips so the effect of pace is the main factor to adjust for.

The following table shows the original BHA figure and my original Rating then the adjustment for the effect of pace and other factors and the adjusted rating.

First of all we will consider the pace aspect to the race. It would be easy to assume that because Fastnet Storm was the only front runner the pace was slow and the hold up horses were disadvantaged and their performances need to be upgraded. I am not sure this is the case however as the winner came from last to first having had a dream run up the inside rail. Chosen Forever went to the front in the back straight and kicked for home rounding the home turn. I tend to think that this made the pace reasonable and that no particular running style was unduly favoured.

I have upgraded Chosen Forever’s performance slightly as he went for home very early and a more patient ride may have allowed him to hold on under normal circumstances.

I have also upgraded the winner’s rating slightly as he won with something in hand and he has won off higher ratings in the past so it is not unreasonable to think he may be able to improve back to his previous level.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS

GRITSTONE – was a little keen and raced quite wide round the home turn so he has been upgraded slightly.

JORDAURA – was messed around a little coming into the straight and again 1f out.

SNOW DANCER – never had a proper clear run round the final bend and although my overall view is that hold up horses were not disadvantaged it is not wise to be too dogmatic so I am prepared to consider forgetting this run – hence the ? – if she next runs in a race where there is likely to be a decent pace to aim at.

HIDDEN GLORY – raced widest of all round the home turn.

FAKHUUR – Faded around the home turn. Although we had doubts about her previous win and may have been tempted to lay her as a false favourite this run may well have been too bad to be true so I reserve the right to ignore the run in future.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

In an attempt to provide some guidance for the future I’ve shown the rating I think each horse could win off in the near future in ordinary handicaps. The key will be the available prices.

OPUS MAXIMUS – Will be going up the handicap and will be running in Class 4 and above but today’s race saw him achieve a solid Class 4 speed figure so he may be able to win off 80 given a decent pace.

CHOSEN FOREVER – Has obvious potential to win off around 82 in Class 4 having run a recent borderline Class 3 speed figure. He will be a leading contender off 82 especially at Wolves.

FOLLOW THE FLAG – Has the ability to win off 80 in a Class 3 or 4 being capable of a Class 2 speed figure but needs a good pace or a slight change in tactics to sit more prominently. However I would still not want to be backing him at too short a price.

HONEY OF A KITTEN – The change of scenery may have worked and he may not need to drop too much in the weights to be competitive. Speed figures are a bit of an unknown due to his Irish form but David Evans may be able to get some improvement out of him.

GRITSTONE – Possible contender off 80 in Class 3  or 4 due to his Class 2 speed figure.

JORDAURA – May need to drop down to class 5 off 74 to be competitive.

SNOW DANCER – Should be competitive off 78 in class 4 if making allowances for today’s effort if a decent pace looks likely.

HIDDEN GLORY – Definitely appears to need a drop to Class 5 and a drop in the handicap to around 71.

JAWAAB – Gave no cause for optimism in the near future.

FASTNET STORM – Looks unlikely to be able to capitalise in the near future even if he gets a soft lead.

FAKHUUR – Even if we forgive today’s run she needs to drop in class and maybe in the handicap to be competitive bearing in mind she won a fillies race at Southwell which may not have been the strongest.

In next month’s article I will review the subsequent runs of these horses in the light of my predictions for their future prospects and we will examine the question of value and how we can begin to quantify each horse’s chance of winning a particular race.