A Template For Race Analysis

Over the next few months I am writing a series of articles showing some of the methods I use to make profits from my betting. I compile my own handicap ratings which is very time consuming but is the foundation of my approach. As a precursor to the series I would like to discuss a past race showing how I look at a race before it is run and also how I analyse performances post race and make some broad assumptions for the future.

There are runners from this race entered in the very near future so feedback, good or bad, will soon exist. I publish this in the hope that readers will gain a helpful insight to improve their own betting and I would appreciate any comments – good or bad. Questions are also welcome either via the comments box or by e-mail.

My first consideration is always to be sure that I think the horse can win off today’s BHA rating. I consider recent form to be more relevant than back form and adjust expectations accordingly.

If a horse has run to today’s mark on its last run, all things being equal, I would consider it value at a shorter price than a horse which ran 5lbs below on its last run.

This is reasonably obvious and the betting markets usually have horses with good form last time out at short prices. They also tend to have horses at relatively short prices that have come down in the weights.

In addition to my “traditional” handicap ratings I use Dave Bellingham’s speed figures from Raceform Interactive as a secondary check on class.

PRE RACE ANALYSIS

In order to illustrate some of my thought processes I have put together a table showing my analysis of the 17.50 at Wolverhampton on Saturday 19^th November 2011.

I chose this race because it is quite a good race for the all-weather and because there was a fairly clear cut pace angle and it shows the value of assessing the difference between turf and aw form.

The horses are shown in finishing order and the column headed BHA is the Official Rating for the race.

RAT is my assessment of the horse’s potential performance on the day.

SPD is the horse’s potential speed figure related to the class of race so a 2 means that the horse is capable of running to a Class 2 par figure.

COMMENTS are a note on how I came to the decisions on RAT and SPD and any other factors.

RAT +/-  a plus means that I am confident that the horse is capable of winning off today’s mark. If the RAT is below the BHA I would prefer a higher speed figure than one that is above the BHA. A minus means that I have serious doubts and a ? means that the figures are not so reliable for a reason mentioned in the comments. Similar comments apply to the SPD +/- and COM +/-.

17.50 Wolverhampton 19/11/2011

Class 3 6f Handicap

Here is a brief summary of each of the runners.

ELNA BRIGHT – All Weather form is better than turf form and he has recently won over 5f on turf. His last two AW runs were in Listed class so we could make a case for ignoring them but he ran to 90 or so in the 1^st one and was bumped at the start in the 2^nd. I ignored the 2^nd and assume he can run to 90 as I had previously rated him at 92 and 94. Speed figures up to Class 2 make him a leading contender. The fact that the form is somewhat hidden may mean a value price.

DEFENCE COUNCIL – Rated a tenuous 75, hence the question mark due to a poor run last time out but he was a bit keen. Speed figure is class 2 but nearly 18 months ago and has had 5 months off. Capable but risky.

SIR GEOFFREY – At first glance appears to be declining as his mark has fallen during the turf season. However, if you take the view that he is consistent on the AW and prefers that surface it is likely that he has a chance of running to his AW best of 85. His last 3 AW runs are 82,84,84 so I put him in at 84. Combining this with his speed figure at Class 2 level makes him a leading contender. He is better however at 5f.

SUTTON VENY – Not really up to the mark. Her previous best of 87 was a year ago and she was raised 5lb for a narrow defeat to Elna Bright in September.

WHOZTHECAT – Should be capable off 81 but the negatives are that he ran to 86 in July but has come down the handicap without winning. He seems to run just below his mark and his speed figures are class 4 at best.

SUMMERINTHECITY – Won by a nose off 85 and has run poorly since hence a tenuous 86 with a question mark. His speed figures are class 4 standard and achieved 18 months ago.

STAR ROVER – Was 3^rd off 89 but has had 2 poor runs since. The 2^nd was over 7f so may still be capable of 88 with a question mark. Speed figures adequate.

EVEN STEVENS – Better on the AW but last AW run was at Southwell where he won with an easy lead. I downgraded that performance to 84 which leaves him way short.

PALAIS GLIDE – Rated 78 on turf LTO but speed figures not up to much since February.

WHAT ABOUT YOU – Rated 86 on last run at Dundalk but he got a softish lead and still couldn’t see it out. He should still be progressive though so must have a decent chance.

LE TOREADOR – 85 is not quite good enough without excellent speed figures but his are class 4 at best. Did run to 87 in February but he is better at 5f anyway.

When we look at the pluses and minuses we see that the handicap ratings show that Elna Bright, Sir Geoffrey, Whozthecat, Palais Glide and What About You are the horses to consider further. Whozthecat’s speed figures are not up to scratch and when we consider the “losing” pattern he seems to have fallen into it is easy to dismiss his chances. Palais Glide’s speed figures also do not convince and there is no reason to think that he is better on the AW than on turf so unless there is a massive price available he can also be dismissed.

There are slight negatives about What About You and Sir Geoffrey but Elna Bright looks a solid proposition.

In order to dot the I’s and cross the T’s the following table looks at the likely pace of the race. I look at the in running comments from the last 3 races of each horse and assess the likely racing style.

H = Held Up, M = Mid Div, P = Pressing the pacemakers, L = Lead

It can be seen that there were 3 potential leaders in Even Stevens, What About You and Le Toreador. They were also likely to be “kept honest” by 5 other horses that like to chase the leaders. It looked highly likely that it would be difficult to win from close to the pace which meant that Elna Bright looked even more attractive and his wide draw is not as detrimental to a hold up horse as it would be to a front runner. Sir Geoffrey appeared slightly less attractive as his front running stable mate was on his inside but he does not have to lead to win races. What About You appeared likely to have problems getting an easy lead with Le Toreador on his inside.

When we look at the available prices of our 3 main contenders Elna Bright was a no brainer at around 12/1 but What About You was not value at 5/2 fav. I had little more than a saver at around 4/1 which was available most of the day. Sir Geoffrey at 40/1 sp and Betfair sp 49.14 and place 13.50 was also a value proposition and I, unfortunately, accepted a much shorter place price than the Betfair 13.50.

It can be seen that the predicted pace is very similar to the actual pace with Even Stevens doing too much from his wider draw to pressurise Le Toreador for the lead. This played into the hands of Elna Bright who always looked likely to pick up the leaders from the home turn. What About You could not get to the lead. Whozthecat probably also did too much as did Sir Geoffrey to a lesser extent. Defence Council sat a bit closer to the pace than the other Mid Div’s. Palais Glide was slowly away and Sutton Veny was away quite well but was steadied back which I do not think helps her.

POST RACE ANALYSIS AND RATINGS

When it comes to assessing this particular race and allocating ratings the main thing to consider is the effect that running styles had on performance. There were no hard luck stories or bad trips so the effect of pace is the main factor to adjust for.

The following table shows the original BHA figure and my original Rating then the adjustment for the effect of pace and the adjusted rating.

Even Stevens and Le Toreador disputed the lead so I will ignore these runs as they seem to have gone much too fast. Further support for ignoring Le Toreador’s run was provided by the jockey reporting that the horse had no more to give.
I have uprated Whozthecat’s performance by 10lbs as he raced closest to the pace and others with descending values down to Defence Council. This gives the adjusted ratings.

I am quite happy with the 77 I have allocated to Whozthecat as I think it brings it into line with his sliding mark. Sir Geoffrey at 81 fits with his 82,84,84 sequence and allows for a little bit of improvement for returning to 5f.

I’ve put question marks against Sutton Veny (steadying tactics may not suit), Palais Glide as it was slowly away and may yet improve and What About You who looked progressive before the race and may need to lead.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

In an attempt to provide some guidance for the future I’ve shown the rating I think each horse could win off in the near future in ordinary handicaps. The key will be the available prices.

ELNA BRIGHT – may well be too short as he won last time out and may go up too much in the weights but he may be still able to win off 95 as I have rated him 94 in the past and he has run a class 2 speed figure. It is quite likely that he will need a strong pace to win.

DEFENCE COUNCIL - will not be a big price next time out but he has good last time out form. He may be able to win off 82 as my rating of 80 is backed up by a class 2 speed figure.

SIR GEOFFREY – may be a bigger price as we have upgraded him 5lbs – not everyone will do that. He has a class 2 speed figure and may well find more for dropping to 5f with fewer potential front runners hence a possible winning mark of 85.

SUTTON VENY – may well be able to win off 84 but I think the horse needs to be allowed to go on and take a prominent position. It may well be that the steadying tactics are a temporary measure and a return to racing prominently will happen when the mark is lowered.

WHOZTHECAT – I’ve rated him at 77 for this race but he has good back form so may still be able to win if dropping a couple of pounds to 79 and dropping in grade and trip but the worry is that he has adopted a habit of running just below his mark for some reason. I’m sure he will come back at some stage but we need a decent price to get involved.

SUMMERINTHECITY and STAR ROVER both need to come down in the handicap a little before being considered.

EVEN STEVENS – may need a return to Southwell, an easy lead and a drop down to 84 to be successful.

PALAIS GLIDE – was slowly away this time so I wouldn’t write him off altogether.

WHAT ABOUT YOU – was very disappointing. I cannot write him off as he looked to be progressive before the race so I hold out some hope that he can win off 84 but he may need to lead and I would not want to take a short price about him.

LE TOREADOR – needs to lead and be dropped in trip, class and in the handicap. However if he is dropped a few pounds and is the only front runner in a class 4 he will be worth supporting.