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Allow Me To Introduce Myself.......

Hello and a warm welcome to RaceReader.co.uk.

RaceReader is a dedicated horse racing blog . I will comment on topical racing issues and hope to provide useful information and analysis to make your betting more profitable and enjoyable.

My name is Steve and I more or less eat, sleep and breathe horse racing. I compile my own handicap ratings, which have helped me to turn a profit betting on handicap races on the turf and all weather over the last few years.

I’ll be honest and admit that I’m probably a bit of an anorak as I get totally engrossed in speed figures, handicap ratings and strike rates. The numbers have helped me to make money but may have distracted me from the reasons why I liked horse racing when I was too young to bet, well, bet legally at any rate.

I half realised I was missing something when Sea The Stars eased through the gap in the Arc and the realisation was complete when the cardiac patient Denman recuperated to win the Hennessy. Denman’s performance was so special that I found myself watching him in preference to a race I’d had a bet in on the all weather.

It took me back to the likes of Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Red Rum and Desert Orchid. I suppose what I’m saying is that I’ve got a bit bogged down in figures and see this blog as a way of kicking off some of the mud.

I’m not sure exactly what form my ramblings will take but I’m sure there will be some moans, rants and tirades but I will try to pick out some positive things as well.

I’d like to share some of the methods I use to ensure I keep backing winners and hope that you will also share your opinions and ideas.

If you have a favourite racing related topic or have ideas for interesting features please let me know. I will do my best to include your input.

Please register for updates using one of the pop up boxes or by visiting the “Register for Updates” page.

Hidden Form Update - Kem 11/01/12

This article is an update to The Value Of Hidden Form – Kem 11/01/12.

I suggested a small each way bet on Sir Geoffrey and he obliged by running 3rd beaten only a neck and a head by his stablemate Cadeaux Pearl. The sp was 12/1 but he started at 15.69 and 4.60 to place on Betfair.

If he does not go up in the weights too much he will be a leading contender next time out over 5f as his wide draw may well have been the difference between victory and defeat this time. Best Trip, as predicted, did too much from his wide draw to get across to lead.

I also suggested a small each way on Smoky Cloud which was unsuccessful. He finished last having pressed the leader until weakening rapidly around 1f out. The interesting point to make is that the first four throughout the race finished as the last four.

This may mean that four of the first five performances need downgrading as they came from off the pace. The exception may be Torres Del Paine who finished second after lying in fifth throughout the race.

I will not be writing Smoky Cloud off just yet as he was still in with a chance with less than 2f to go and probably went off too keenly and too quickly. A couple more pounds off and a big double figure price may well tempt me into another small each way bet.

Under The Radar - Detailed Race Analysis

This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their January 2012 newsletter.

This follows the same analysis format as the earlier article in racereader.co.uk “A Template For Race Analysis”.

In last month’s article I gave a general idea of the way that I operate. In this article I would like to go into more detail about how I conduct a pre-race analysis showing the factors I considered in a recent race. I will also give an insight into the post-race analysis showing how I would allocate ratings to each horse and also make some general predictions about future prospects for each of the horses.

PRE-RACE ANALYSIS

In order to ascertain whether I feel a horse can win off today’s mark or not I have put together a table for easy reference showing my analysis of the 14.55 at Wolverhampton on Monday 26^th December. This is followed by more detailed comments on each horse.

I chose this race purely because it was the highest grade handicap for older horses on the card.

The horses are shown in finishing order and the column headed BHA is the Official rating for the race.

RAT is my assessment of the horse’s potential performance on the day.

SPD is the horse’s potential speed figure related to the class of race so a 2 means that the horse is capable of running to a Class 2 par figure.

COMMENTS are a note of additional factors to consider.

RAT +/- a plus means that I am confident that the horse is capable of winning off today’s mark. If the RAT is below the BHA I would prefer a higher speed figure than I would for a rating that is above the BHA. A minus means that I have serious doubts and a ? means that the figures are not so reliable for a reason mentioned in the comments. Similar comments apply to the SPD +/- and COM +/-.

14.55 Wolverhampton 26^th Dec 2011

9.5f Class 4

Pos	Horse	sp	bha	Rat	Rat +/-	Spd	Spd +/-	Com +/-	Comments
1	Opus Maximus	7	75	75	+	5	-	?	Last adequate speed fig Jul 2010
2	Chosen Forever	7.5	79	78	+	3/4	+
3	Follow The Flag	20	80	78	+	2	+	?	Slight doubt over drop in trip.
4	Honey Of A Kitten	25	82	76	-	?	?	-	Ex Irish, 1st run for new trainer, 3 months off, few Irish spd figs available
5	Gritstone	3.5	81	79	+	2	+
6	Jordaura	16	77	74	-	5	-
7	Snow Dancer	7.5	79	78	+	3	+
8	Hidden Glory	20	79	74	?	4	?	?	May have deteriorated since March.
9	Jawaab	50	74	?	-	4/5		?	Has been running over longer distances.
10	Fastnet Storm	6.5	78	?	-	5	-	?	Needs to lead
11	Fakhuur	2.75	77	75	?	5	?	?	Form in small field fillies’ handicap may be unreliable. May be able to improve on speed figures

Brief summary of each of the runners.

OPUS MAXIMUS – Is normally held up but in his last run he made rapid progress to lead with 6f to go so we can probably forget that run. In his previous run he had finished a head second and I rated him 75. He runs off 75 today and has a recent speed figure at Class 5 level. While he can win off 75 I would prefer a higher speed figure to be confident of him being a leading contender and his last adequate Class 4 speed figure was achieved in July 2010.

CHOSEN FOREVER – Last time out was beaten by over 3l but I rated him 77 and the time before he won with a rating of 78. He runs off 79 today and my assessment of 78 combined with a speed figure almost up to Class 3 level marks him out as a leading contender.

FOLLOW THE FLAG – Running off 80 today I rated him 78 last time out. We need to see a better than Class 4 speed figure to give him a leading chance. He ran slightly below Class 4 level 3 runs ago but ran a Class 2 figure on the AW in February but had 11 poor runs on turf before having 6 runs on the AW. Normally this would mean that I would say that his speed figures do not come up to standard but he is a better horse on the AW. Without even considering my ratings we can see this by looking at his BHA ratings. During his spell on the turf his mark decreased from 88 to 66 but his mark upon resuming on the AW was 75 so the handicapper has acknowledged this fact. I am therefore discounting his turf form and this means that the Class 2 speed figure is more recent and therefore lends weight to his case to be treated as a contender. A slight doubt is that his last 2 runs have been over 12f and 11f at Southwell so the drop back to 9.5f may not be to his advantage.

HONEY OF A KITTEN – First run for new stable having been bought from Ireland. Runs off 82 and ran to 85 4 runs ago in July. Has since been beaten 67 lengths, 10l and 14l so cannot seriously be considered.

GRITSTONE – Runs off 81 having run to a 79 last time out which is backed up by a Class 2 speed figure the time before so he is a leading contender.

JORDAURA – Ran to 75 on his penultimate run but ran below that level last time out. Has recently run to only Class 5 speed and we have to go back to Sep 2010 for an adequate figure. No real reason to expect a big run.

SNOW DANCER – Last time out was a conditions race with horses rated in the 90’s. A case could be made for a rating well above today’s mark of 79 but it would not be wise to take the form at face value. We can say that it was a good run and we can take the 78 achieved on the previous run as the expected performance for today. This is backed up by a Class 3 speed figure to make her a leading contender on form with Chosen Forever.

HIDDEN GLORY – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten by 44l and 10l on his last two starts. Won off 70 3 starts ago on turf but may have deteriorated since running in a group 3 on the AW in March.

JAWAAB – Cannot be seriously considered having been beaten a total of over 100l on his last five starts. He has also been running over further.

FASTNET STORM – Made all to win off 86 in Nov 2010 but has been heavily beaten in his last four starts. He also needs to lead to win and cannot be considered even though he is coming down the handicap.

FAKHUUR – Has only run 4 times winning last time out achieving a rating of 75 from me. Now runs off 77 but has not yet achieved an adequate speed figure. Can improve but the win was at Southwell in a small field of fillies so would not want to take a short price.

When we look at the pluses and minuses we see that the handicap ratings show that Opus Maximus, Chosen Forever, Follow The Flag, Gritstone and Snow Dancer are the horses to consider further. We therefore look at the speed figures and Opus Maximus appears to be lacking in this respect so we can focus on the other four possibles. There is little to separate the others but there is a slight doubt about Follow The Flag dropping in trip so we would be looking for a bigger price about him than the others.

In order to dot the I’s and cross the T’s the following table looks at the likely pace of the race. I look at the in running comments from the last 3 races of each horse and assess the likely racing style.

H = Held Up, M = Mid Div, P = Pressing the pacemakers, L = Lead

POS	DRAW	HORSE	PREDICTED	ACTUAL
1	10	Opus Maximus	H	H
2	8	Chosen Forever	P	P/L
3	9	Follow The Flag	H	M/P
4	3	Honey Of A Kitten	M	M
5	6	Gritstone	P	P
6	4	Jordaura	H	H
7	5	Snow Dancer	H	H
8	7	Hidden Glory	M	H
9	11	Jawaab	M	M
10	4	Fastnet Storm	L	L
11	2	Fakhuur	P	P

It can be seen that the only habitual front runner was Fastnet Storm. This is normally a pointer to a horse having a good chance to get a soft lead and to steal the race but his form has been so poor that it is easy to dismiss his chance. There were 3 horses that like to press the pace in Chosen Forever, Gritstone and Fakhuur so these may well be in the best position to attack when Fastnet Storm runs out of steam. There were 4 hold up horses who may well be at a disadvantage if the pace is slow up front in Opus Maximus, Follow The Flag, Jordaura and Snow Dancer.

Taking this additional pace information into account our decision to discount Opus Maximus on grounds of speed figures appears to be backed up by the likelihood of a less than breakneck pace. Snow Dancer and Follow The Flag’s chances can be downgraded so we would need a decent price to get involved but Chosen Forever and Gritstone look like fairly decent propositions if the price is right.

The sp forecast prices of our 5 original shortlisted runners: – Opus Maximus 7/1, Chosen Forever 6/1, Follow The Flag 12/1, Gritstone 3/1, Snow Dancer 7/1.

Betfair prices @ 2.15 pm ; OM 9.80, CF 10.50, FTF 20.00, G 4.30, SD 10.5

Betfair SP; OM 9.92, CF 8.27, FTF 27.27, G 4.39, SD 13.37

The final decision on what bets to strike depend solely on the price.

Our main selections were Chosen Forever and Gritstone but we can see that Chosen Forever offers the best value if we rate the two horses close together and Chosen Forever was available at 10.5 so that was my main bet on the race and I did not want to back Gritstone at around 3/1 indeed I regarded Gritstone as lay material at less than 3/1.

Our other potential bets at bigger prices were Follow The Flag and Snow Dancer. Snow Dancer’s negative was the potential slow pace but I regarded her as pretty close to Chosen Forever otherwise so I had a small saver on her at 10.5 just in case the pace was strong and a hold up horse was able to make ground to win. Follow The Flag’s doubt was the drop in trip but at around 20 I thought it was worth a small bet. He finished 3^rd at a BF place SP of 7.67.

It is also worth looking at the prices of horses we have discounted as it is often possible to find a decent lay bet. Fakhuur had doubts around the standard of the race she won at Southwell yet started 11/4 favourite. She faded from the home turn to finish last.

It can be seen that the predicted pace is very similar to the actual pace with Fastnet Storm making the early running and the only real differences between predicted and actual pace were Chosen Forever taking over the lead at halfway and going for home very early. Follow The Flag was also allowed to race closer to the pace than normal and took closer order after three furlongs.

POST RACE ANALYSIS AND RATINGS

When it comes to assessing this particular race and allocating ratings the main thing to consider is the effect that running styles had on performance. There were just a couple of minor hard luck stories and bad trips so the effect of pace is the main factor to adjust for.

The following table shows the original BHA figure and my original Rating then the adjustment for the effect of pace and other factors and the adjusted rating.

Horse	bha	Rating	Adj	Adj Rating		max win	Class	other
Opus Maximus	75	77	2	79		80		decent pace
Chosen Forever	79	79	2	81		82		obvious potential
Follow The Flag	80	78		78		80		decent pace
Honey Of A Kitten	82	80		80		80		change of scenery may have helped- drop in handicap may also help
Gritstone	81	78	2	80		80
Jordaura	77	72	2	74		74	5	may need drop in class
Snow Dancer	79	73		73	?	78		decent pace
Hidden Glory	79	67	4	71		71	5	may need drop in class
Jawaab	74	56		56		?		not looking likely
Fastnet Storm	78	48		48		?		not looking likely and needs to lead
Fakhuur	77	40		40	?	75	5	case to ignore today’s run but may need return to Southwell and drop to class 5

First of all we will consider the pace aspect to the race. It would be easy to assume that because Fastnet Storm was the only front runner the pace was slow and the hold up horses were disadvantaged and their performances need to be upgraded. I am not sure this is the case however as the winner came from last to first having had a dream run up the inside rail. Chosen Forever went to the front in the back straight and kicked for home rounding the home turn. I tend to think that this made the pace reasonable and that no particular running style was unduly favoured.

I have upgraded Chosen Forever’s performance slightly as he went for home very early and a more patient ride may have allowed him to hold on under normal circumstances.

I have also upgraded the winner’s rating slightly as he won with something in hand and he has won off higher ratings in the past so it is not unreasonable to think he may be able to improve back to his previous level.

OTHER ADJUSTMENTS

GRITSTONE – was a little keen and raced quite wide round the home turn so he has been upgraded slightly.

JORDAURA – was messed around a little coming into the straight and again 1f out.

SNOW DANCER – never had a proper clear run round the final bend and although my overall view is that hold up horses were not disadvantaged it is not wise to be too dogmatic so I am prepared to consider forgetting this run – hence the ? – if she next runs in a race where there is likely to be a decent pace to aim at.

HIDDEN GLORY – raced widest of all round the home turn.

FAKHUUR – Faded around the home turn. Although we had doubts about her previous win and may have been tempted to lay her as a false favourite this run may well have been too bad to be true so I reserve the right to ignore the run in future.

FUTURE PROSPECTS

In an attempt to provide some guidance for the future I’ve shown the rating I think each horse could win off in the near future in ordinary handicaps. The key will be the available prices.

OPUS MAXIMUS – Will be going up the handicap and will be running in Class 4 and above but today’s race saw him achieve a solid Class 4 speed figure so he may be able to win off 80 given a decent pace.

CHOSEN FOREVER – Has obvious potential to win off around 82 in Class 4 having run a recent borderline Class 3 speed figure. He will be a leading contender off 82 especially at Wolves.

FOLLOW THE FLAG – Has the ability to win off 80 in a Class 3 or 4 being capable of a Class 2 speed figure but needs a good pace or a slight change in tactics to sit more prominently. However I would still not want to be backing him at too short a price.

HONEY OF A KITTEN – The change of scenery may have worked and he may not need to drop too much in the weights to be competitive. Speed figures are a bit of an unknown due to his Irish form but David Evans may be able to get some improvement out of him.

GRITSTONE – Possible contender off 80 in Class 3 or 4 due to his Class 2 speed figure.

JORDAURA – May need to drop down to class 5 off 74 to be competitive.

SNOW DANCER – Should be competitive off 78 in class 4 if making allowances for today’s effort if a decent pace looks likely.

HIDDEN GLORY – Definitely appears to need a drop to Class 5 and a drop in the handicap to around 71.

JAWAAB – Gave no cause for optimism in the near future.

FASTNET STORM – Looks unlikely to be able to capitalise in the near future even if he gets a soft lead.

FAKHUUR – Even if we forgive today’s run she needs to drop in class and maybe in the handicap to be competitive bearing in mind she won a fillies race at Southwell which may not have been the strongest.

In next month’s article I will review the subsequent runs of these horses in the light of my predictions for their future prospects and we will examine the question of value and how we can begin to quantify each horse’s chance of winning a particular race.

The Value Of Hidden Form - Kempton 11/01/12

I always try to emphasise obtaining value but it is time consuming and never easy to put an exact figure on any horse’s chances. Rather than compiling a full betting forecast perhaps the simplest way to assess value is by finding form which others may have overlooked or is not so recent. There may be a couple of not so obvious value bets today.

17.15 Kempton 5f Class 4

In an earlier article (A Template For Race Analysis) I dealt with the 6f Wol 19.50 on 19/11/11. Here is what I said about Sir Geoffrey’s future prospects.

“He has a class 2 speed figure and may well find more for dropping to 5f with fewer potential front runners hence a possible winning mark of 85.”

Since then he has run twice over 6f. The first of these was at LIngfield where his jockey took him towards the rail from stall 2 and was well up with the pace.

This was my summary of his performance in that race.

02/12 14.55 – Sir Geoffrey was well above the value price on Betfair but ran as if it was an outing to lose a couple of pounds before a serious attempt at 5f. The four horses that were prominent, Cadeaux Pearl, Sir Geoffrey, Billy Red and Smoky Cloud, were the last four to finish so it is possible that they went too fast in front and may be excused these seemingly poor runs.

His next run was over 6f at Wolverhampton where he went off too fast and the race can be overlooked. Cadeaux Pearl won his next race and Smoky Cloud has also put in an improved performance since and runs in the 18.45 at Kempton today.

This means that we can discount his last two runs and he is running off 79 having come down the handicap which makes him appear to be a leading contender today but we must look at the opposition.

Sir Geoffrey likes to race up with the pace but is drawn wider than 2 of 3 potential front runners, Cadeaux Pearl and Island Legend. Best Trip is drawn one stall wider but is an habitual front runner and may well go off too fast in an attempt to get to the rail.

The race looks competitive with 2 last time out winners in Cadeaux Pearl and Desert Strike plus the favourite Earlsmedic who came to win his last race but was pipped on the line by a well-in Richard Fahey horse.

There will be easier races to win so I would suggest a small each way bet on Sir Geoffrey (currently 10/1 to 12/1) as additionally there has been money for both of Milton Bradley’s horses. One of whom, Volcanic Dust, finished last on its last run at 20/1 having been beaten only 2 lengths on its previous run by Diamond Charlie who was 4/1 for this race before being withdrawn. Desert Strike has also been backed partially due to being Hugh Taylor’s selection.

18.45 Kempton 6f Class 6

Smoky Cloud won over 7f off 72 at Gowran in September but then ran poorly on soft ground before joining Amy Weaver. He has run four times on the all-weather and has dropped from 79 to 65. The run mentioned previously was his second all weather race. Since then he made the running but faded over 7f and last time out finished last of 12 over 6f but was beaten only 4.5 lengths.

If he is learning to settle and the last run can be improved upon he is worth a small each way interest having dropped down from Class 4 to Class 6. (currently ranges from 9/1 to 12/1). He is well drawn in 3 and the cutaway will help if his jockey decides to sit behind the pace rather than taking the lead.The race is just an ordinary Class 6 so if he has returned to his best the exact strength of the opposition should not matter too much.

Under The Radar - Finding Value In Handicaps

This is article was originally published by The Betting School Insider’s Club (www.betting-school.com) in their December 2011 newsletter.

MISSPENT YOUTH

I have been betting on horses for 40 years. I learnt to read using the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book and my arithmetic improved in leaps and bounds when my father explained to me that 5 divided by 2 was 5/2 or 2.5 to 1. Before I was 10 years old I knew all about Round Robins, Yankees and the ITV 7. Up and down doubles held no fears and each way equally divided trebles were second nature.

Many people would see this as a misspent childhood but in addition to reading and numbers skills beyond my years I also learnt that gambling should be done with money you can afford to lose. While it was always possible to win it could not be achieved without hard work and looking after your money. It was impressed upon me that unless you put the work in you had no right to expect to win.

In my late teens I began compiling handicap ratings for sprint races which yielded some success. Being in a good full time job I could not devote the time required to take it too seriously but I always suspected that I had the right idea. I also knew that to satisfy my own work ethic I needed to be sure that I had put the hours in and had all the information at my disposal.

PUTTING THE LONG HOURS IN

In the 80’s and 90’s several new writers came to the fore with Mark Coton, Alan Potts and Nick Mordin being some of my favourites.

Mark Coton’s Value Betting broke new ground in suggesting that more winners was not the answer and he was willing to forgo short priced winners in favour of winners at value prices. He also provided a points based system to quantify his version of value.

Alan Potts’ version of value was in betting Against The Crowd. His was a battle against his fellow punter not the bookie and if you could beat them you would be in profit.

Nick Mordin’s writing instilled a more scientific and research based approach to finding winners and he also advocated some of the methods adopted in the US. For a while I compiled my own speed ratings using the method he outlined.

More recently my betting became more serious once it became possible to view every race in full on the dedicated racing channels. This coincided with a redundancy and not only was the required amount of time available to me but also the required amount of information. Now I could compile my handicap ratings not just from in running comments but I could form my own opinions on the validity of those comments and spot things the commentators missed. This looked like a recipe to satisfy my hunger for complete information and to allow me to “put the long hours in” without which I could not justify substantial betting.

Over the last few years there have been a number of successful gamblers and TV tipsters making the headlines. They all have their own unique approach which helps them to make profits but the two common themes tend to be value and hard work.

Dave Nevison never appears on RUK without uttering words like “the favourite is the most likely winner but it won’t be carrying any of my money at that price”.

Hugh Taylor only tips horses which meet his criteria on price. Neither of these two have plucked their notion of value out of the air. They have built up their ideas over years of careful observation. Hugh Taylor particularly displays a thoughtful and considered approach which probably comes from his time as a jockey’s agent when he would need to study form to identify the best horses and spend hours on the phone to trainers trying to secure the rides.

Patrick Veitch may be one of the most flamboyant characters to emerge in recent years but let’s not forget that he studied Maths and by his own admission he has to be part brain surgeon to do the research. He watches hours of re-runs in order to acquire the knowledge he needs to be successful. He also says that his betting improved when he had to go into hiding and put his life on hold to escape from a criminal. Everybody needs to put the long hours in to achieve success.

DISGUISED FORM = VALUE

Since my redundancy and the opportunity to devote my time to racing I have not really looked back. I have always had value as my watchword and it was the basis of my service called Flat Ratings Pro. I would tip several horses in a race and specify a “value price” at which each should be backed. This aimed to give a high strike rate and make a long term profit. I calculated a “tissue” price for each horse in great detail. It was very specific and unambiguous but I offered no insight into how the selections were arrived at or why they were value.

Over the next few months I will be writing a series of articles explaining some of the methods I use to find winners at value prices. I hope these articles will be informative and will give an insight into a more “intuitive” approach as opposed to calculating a betting forecast to the “nth” degree. My hope is that readers can use the insights to make their own decisions if they have the time available and the necessary application.

Unique Handicap Ratings

The mainstay of my winner finding is my database of handicap ratings. This is time consuming and involves watching re-runs of races. In order to save time I specialise in handicap races for 3yo’s and above and I further reduce the workload by limiting myself to races up to 10f on the all-weather and 8f on the turf.

I tend to concentrate on ordinary races. You may have heard commentators say that you would get a different result every time if they were re-run. They are full of seemingly exposed horses but I tend to look for those aspects of a horse’s past form which are disguised and which can therefore be overlooked by many.

My first consideration is always to be sure that I think the horse can win off today’s BHA rating. I consider recent form to be more relevant than back form and adjust expectations accordingly. If a horse has run to today’s mark on its last run, all things being equal, I would consider it value at a shorter price than a horse which ran 5lbs below on its last run. This is reasonably obvious and the betting markets usually have horses with good form last time out at short prices. They also tend to have horses at relatively short prices that have come down in the weights.

These situations are where unique ratings come into play as I am able to consider all aspects of a performance. In spite of my “hunger for complete information” I must be clear that I do not pick up on everything (nor do I try to – there is not enough time) but watching re-runs whilst considering the variables can give a valuable insight into why a horse is over or under-priced. If you spot something which has been ignored by the Racing Post you may well have uncovered a well-disguised value bet.

Don’t Seek Perfection

I’d also like to point out that there is no such thing as the perfect bet. In the absence of the holy grail of “complete” information we can only aim to know a little more than the majority. If we only bet when everything is in our favour we would have very few bets, procrastination would set in and we would also never forgive ourselves for backing a loser. We are looking for solid value bets which means that if we find enough of them we will win in the long term. We forgive ourselves for backing losers as we are satisfied that we made the bet knowing that the value makes up for a number of losers.

In this first article I’d like to go through the general points I try to cover in my ratings. In certain instances I will ignore a poor run altogether but often adjust ratings to offset the adverse effect and sometimes reduce ratings where an unusual advantage has occurred.

The value of knowing when to ignore a run is fairly obvious if you consider my point about recent form being more important than back form. If you can eliminate poor runs thereby turning back form into recent form you have an edge over the market. Put simply if you can make a case for old form which is good enough to win today’s race to be treated as if it was last time out you have found value.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER

AW form v Turf form – this is a very powerful tool ( see article written in June 2010 – Official Handicap Ratings BHA – AW v Turf ) which involves analysing disparities between aw ratings and turf ratings. A recent example of the effectiveness of this type of analysis came on Saturday Nov 19^th in the 17.50 at Wolverhampton. Elna Bright and Sir Geoffrey had both been running on the turf during the summer and were back on the AW. Elna Bright won at 12/1 and Sir Geoffrey was 3^rd at 40/1 and a Betfair place SP of 13.50.

I think my comments show the value of assessing AW and turf form and making “back” form into “recent” form to uncover a value bet.

ELNA BRIGHT – All Weather form is better than turf form and he has recently won over 5f on turf. His last two AW runs were in Listed class so we could make a case for ignoring them but he ran to 90 or so in the 1^st one and was bumped at the start in the 2^nd. I ignored the 2^nd and assume he can run to 90 as I had previously rated him at 92 and 94. Speed figures up to Class 2 make him a leading contender. The fact that the form is somewhat hidden may mean a value price.

SIR GEOFFREY – At first glance appears to be declining as his mark has fallen during the turf season. However, if you take the view that he is consistent on the AW and prefers that surface it is likely that he has a chance of running to his AW best of 85. His last 3 AW runs are 82,84,84 so I put him in at 84. Combining this with his speed figure at Class 2 level makes him a leading contender. He is better however at 5f.

Class – Where a horse has run poorly taking a step up in class to listed or a big field heritage handicap and is now running back in its class I will ignore the run. It is also useful to look at the BHA ratings of horses contesting a race. For example if the highest rated horse running in a class 3 is 87 the race is nearer to a class 4.

Going/Track/ Distance unsuitable – I will ignore a poor run if today’s conditions are suitable.

Draw – I attempt to adjust the ratings where there is a draw bias and ignore the run if it is clear that a horse stood no chance from its draw. It can help to treat races which split into groups as two or sometimes three separate contests. Draw is also connected to pace as inside draws may demand a front runner to take advantage or be blocked in and outside draws are more disadvantageous to front runners than hold up horses.

Trip – I often adjust for horses caught wide round a bend or that are stopped in their run. I sometimes adjust or ignore runs if a front runner is slowly away and it appears to be a one-off.

Pace – I will ignore a run where front runners go much too fast. I will often downgrade a front runner winning with an easy lead and will upgrade closers in a slowly run race and conversely upgrade front runners contributing to a fast pace.

It is not easy to assess pace so it is always wise to be cautious. The times are no help either as fast races are more easily run off an even pace. A slow time can result from an easy lead and also from a very fast early pace which collapses.

It is therefore useful to assess pace before the race as if there are several potential front runners and they are all vying for the lead in the actual race you can be fairly certain that the race was run at a good pace. I assess the likely front runners by looking at the running style adopted in each horse’s last three runs in my pre-race analysis.

My analysis of the race won by Elna Bright showed that there were 3 potential front runners and 5 other horses that were likely to keep them honest by chasing the pace. This pointed even more strongly to Elna Bright as he was one of only two confirmed hold up horses.

Something in hand – I am always interested in how the winner looks at the end of the race. I add a few pounds to the winner’s rating if it looks like he has something left.

Speed Figures – In addition to my “traditional” handicap ratings I use Dave Bellingham’s speed figures from Raceform Interactive as a secondary check on class. The figures do not account for weight (unlike the RP’s Topspeed figures) so they are a measure of how fast the horse ran after adjusting for the going.

There are pars for each grade of race so a class 4 par is 105 and a class 3 107 for 4yo horses. Horses under 4 are assessed at improving by 1 point every 2 months so if a 3yo ran 102 in May or June it would be the same as running 105 as a 4yo. I account for this “improvement” in my pre-race analysis. I also give more importance to recent figures and on the whole this approach provides a good backup to my handicap ratings.

I hope this has given an insight into the kind of thought patterns I employ.

I will share the ensuing Betting School articles here at RaceReader.co.uk in due course.

Future Prospects - 15.15 Kem 20/12/11

Please refer to “A Template For Race Analysis” which shows the analysis and future prospects from the 17.50 Wol on 19th Nov 2011. Le Toreador is also mentioned in the “Future Prospects – 13.10 Lin 29/11/11” article.

This is not a full analysis in an attempt to find the winner of this race. It is a quick means of checking the potential for backing one of the runners from the above race.

15.15 Kempton 20/12/11

LE TOREADOR – has been dropped to 85 and is running over 5f. His last run was 2^nd in a claimer but the speed figure was Class 2 standard. He did not lead but ran very well considering.

He may not be able to lead today as although he has a good draw in 2 Mandy’s Hero and Best Trip are drawn 1 and 3. This may not matter as Mandy’s Hero does not look good enough to win and Best Trip has had a lay off, before which he was running poorly. He runs off 80 today and I have him rated at 77 so unless he is left alone in front has only nuisance value. The other front runner in the race is Island Legend who is drawn wide in 9 who also appears in the grip of the handicapper..

The RP forecast has Le Toreador as 4/1 fav.

Latest Prices

12.30 Betfair has him at 5.4 and he is 7/2 with most bookies. Everything looks in place for a good run but there will be plenty of pressure on the lead so I would keep stakes small but anything above 4/1 looks reasonable value.

Future Prospects Review to 19/12/11

I’d like to run through the results so far of the “Future Prospects” articles. The original comments on each runner can be found in the article “A Template For Race Analysis”.

Table of the results of subsequent runners up to the 16/12/11.

DATE	TIME	COURSE	NAME	VERDICT	RESULT	SP	BFSP	BFPlace
29/11/11	13.10	Lin	Le Toreador	Value price bigger than 100/30	2nd	5/2	3.47	1.52
29/11/11	14.50	Lin	Elna Bright	Value Price 8/1 to win	7th	15/2	9.11	3.22
29/11/11	14.50	Lin	What About You	Value Price 9/1 to place	3rd	16/1	19.5	6.2
02/12/11	14.55	Lin	Sir Geoffrey	Value Price 17/2 or 2.90 to place – small stakes	9th	8/1	12.08	3.3
03/12/11	19.50	Wol	Star Rover	Not seriously considered at any price	10th	50/1	130	23
06/12/11	13.00	Sou	Whozthecat	No bet	3rd	5/2	3.61	1.48
06/12/11	13.00	Sou	Even Stevens	No bet	1st	7/2	5	1.68
08/12/11	18.30	Kem	Sutton Veny	May be value at 5/1 – small stakes	4th	7/2	5	2.14

29/11 13.10 – Le Toreador was a very short price and in the event ran quite well but finished 2^nd with the race being just too tough for him. At around 5/2 a case could have been made for laying him.

29/11 14.50 – Elna Bright drifted to around my value price but could not get into the race as the pace largely held up. What About You ran quite well to finish 3^rd but failed to reach my value price for a place of 9/1. Dickie’s Lad led and finished 2^nd and the performance may be worth upgrading slightly as he did not capitulate. The only horse to make headway from off the pace was the winner Capone. He was well backed and his performance may also need upgrading slightly.

02/12 14.55 – Sir Geoffrey was well above the value price on Betfair but ran as if it was an outing to lose a couple of pounds before a serious attempt at 5f. The four horses that were prominent, Cadeaux Pearl, Sir Geoffrey, Billy Red and Smoky Cloud, were the last four to finish so it is possible that they went too fast in front and may be excused these seemingly poor runs.

03/12 19.50 – Star Rover – no bet

06/12 13.00 – Whozthecat was a very short price and could have been considered lay material. He ran as expected again – just a few pounds below his falling mark. Even Stevens was not considered because I felt he would need less pace pressure to succeed. In the event he was aided by Best Trip’s withdrawal and the well fancied leader Crimson Cloud breaking a blood vessel. Monsieur Jamie was another perceived danger and he came 2^nd.

08/12 18.30 – Sutton Veny was aided by the return to racing more prominently but came up just short. It was well backed to 4/1 but I had recommended small stakes at 5/1.

All in all varied results with two false prices and potentially 2 good lays being identified in Le Toreador and Whozthecat.

From a backing point of view Elna Bright just became a losing bet by drifting to the suggested value price before the off. Sir Geoffrey and Sutton Veny were both recommended to small stakes due to concerns about the trip and riding tactics, respectively.

I suggested a place bet on What About You but was too greedy on the value price and underestimated Even Stevens’ chance although the pace profile of the race changed before the off with Best Trip withdrawing and during the race with Crimson Cloud’s misfortune.

Latest

Elna Bright ran at Lingfield on Saturday in a conditions race and finished down the field. I hope it was reasonably obvious in the light of these articles that he was basically outclassed as he was running at level weights against horses with higher BHA ratings.

I will be keeping an eye on subsequent runs connected to these races in the near future.

Future Prospects - 18.30 Kem 08/12/11

Please refer to “A Template For Race Analysis” which shows the analysis and future prospects from the 17.50 Wol on 19th Nov 2011.

This is not a full analysis in an attempt to find the winner of this race. It is a quick means of checking the potential for backing one of the runners from the above race.

18.30 Kempton 08/12/11

Previous note

SUTTON VENY – may well be able to win off 84 but I think the horse needs to be allowed to go on and take a prominent position. It may well be that the steadying tactics are a temporary measure and a return to racing prominently will happen when the mark is lowered.

Today – Handicap mark has dropped from 87 to 85. She is capable of running very solid Class 4 speed figures especially if allowed to go on in front or up with the pace rather than being steadied as has been happening recently. I think the steadying tactics disappoint her so she will be a leading contender if allowed to race closer to the pace.

The field consists of 7 prominent racers including Sutton Veny, 3 mid division types and 2 hold up horses. Sutton Veny is drawn in the centre so if Adam Kirby decides to make use of her he could get into a good position. With the uncertainty over tactics and the handicap rating being 1lb above my top rating for her I will only be looking at small stakes but she does not have to lead to win so she is worth following at Kempton.

The RP forecast has her 5^th fav at 7/1

Latest Prices

11.15 Betfair has her at 6.2 and she is 5/1 with several bookies. I would have liked slightly nearer to the forecast price but if the tactics are changed it may well be value at small stakes.

Future Prospects - 13.00 Sou 06/12/11

Please refer to “A Template For Race Analysis” which shows the analysis and future prospects from the 17.50 Wol on 19th Nov 2011.

This is not a full analysis in an attempt to find the winner of this race. It is a quick means of checking the potential for backing one of the runners from the above race.

13.00 Southwell 06/12/11

Previous note

WHOZTHECAT – I’ve rated him at 77 for this race but he has good back form so may still be able to win if dropping a couple of pounds to 79 and dropping in grade and trip but the worry is that he has adopted a habit of running just below his mark for some reason. I’m sure he will come back at some stage but we need a decent price to get involved.

EVEN STEVENS – may need a return to Southwell, an easy lead and a drop down to 84 to be successful.

Today – Dropped in trip to 5f and dropped to Class 4.

Whozthecat has been dropped to 79 and is running in a Class 4 so on face value has a reasonable chance. However his habit of running just below a decreasing handicap rating means that we need a bigger price than normal to get involved.

Even Stevens is back at Southwell and has been dropped to 85 whish is only 1lb above his best but he will probably need a softish lead to win.

After allocating pace ratings to the field it can be seen that there are two definite front runners in Even Stevens and Best Trip with six horses that like to chase the pace, two of which, have recently led, Bravo King and Crimson Cloud. There is only one hold up horse in the race, Hotham. It is therefore highly likely that Even Stevens will not get the lead he requires to win so we can rule him out of serious consideration.

The sp forecast shows Whozthecat at 11/2 3^rd fav with Even Stevens 10/1. There is a short priced sp fav in Monsieur Jamie who looks progressive so unless Whozthecat is a massive price we should leave the race alone.

Latest Prices

09.50 The Betfair market has Crimson Cloud as fav at 3.8 with Monsieur Jamie at 4.30. Whozthecat is a very short 4.9 and Even Stevens is at 9.4.

With a seemingly well backed Fahey runner and a seemingly progressive Monsieur Jamie in the field I cannot consider a bet on a seemingly regressive Whozthecat or Even Stevens.

Future Prospects - 19.20 Wol 03/12/11

Please refer to “A Template For Race Analysis” which shows the analysis and future prospects from the 17.50 Wol on 19th Nov 2011.

This is not a full analysis in an attempt to find the winner of this race. It is a quick means of checking the potential for backing one of the runners from the above race.

19.20 Wolverhampton 03/12/11

Previous note

STAR ROVER needs to come down in the handicap a little before being considered.

Today – Up in trip to 7f and down in the weights by 2lb from 89 to 87 but has now run relatively poorly 3 times since he was 2^nd off 89.

He cannot be seriously considered today even at a big price.

The sp f/c has him at one of the two 25/1 outsiders

Latest Prices

16.45 – Betfair 65 win and 13 place. Bookies best 40/1 general 33/1.

Future Prospects - 14.55 Lin 02/12/11

Please refer to “A Template For Race Analysis” which shows the analysis and future prospects from the 17.50 Wol on 19th Nov 2011.

This is not a full analysis in an attempt to find the winner of this race. It is a quick means of checking the potential for backing one of the runners from the above race.

14.55 Lingfield 02/12/11

Previous note

SIR GEOFFREY – may be a bigger price as we have upgraded him 5lbs – not everyone will do that. He has a class 2 speed figure and may well find more for dropping to 5f with fewer potential front runners hence a possible winning mark of 85.

Today – Dropped in the handicap 1lb to 84 and down from Class 3 to Class 4. He is capable of running to a Class 2 speed figure so is a leading contender. The question mark is the trip of 6f. He has only run a handful of times over 6f and has run well but not won.

He has a good draw in 2. Stall 1 has a win percentage of only 8% against stalls 2-4 of 13.5% so he should have no problem running close to the pace. There are 3 potential leaders drawn in 3,5 and 7 after adjusting for the non-runners. Billy Red who almost always leads is drawn in 7 so may have to do too much to get to the front and the other two possibles don’t always lead. Cadeaux Pearl is Sir Geoffrey’s stablemate and has a good draw in 3. Smoky Cloud is slightly wider in 5.

A possible positive is that he is being tried over 6f for the 2^nd time in a row by Dandy Nicholls but it could just as easily be a means of ensuring the horse is dropped another pound or two before reverting to 5f.

The bet depends on the prices available.

The sp forecast shows Sir Geoffrey at 10/1

Latest Prices

13.00 General 7/1 with bookies but some show 15/2.

Betfair – 8.6 win and 2.70 for the place.

Over 5f we would probably be looking at a price of 11/2 2^nd or 3^rd Fav to reasonable stakes but as it is 6f I would like around 17/2 with the bookies or 10 on Betfair and perhaps 2.90 for a place to small stakes.

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Hidden Form Update - Kem 11/01/12

Under The Radar - Detailed Race Analysis

The Value Of Hidden Form - Kempton 11/01/12

Under The Radar - Finding Value In Handicaps

Future Prospects - 15.15 Kem 20/12/11

Future Prospects Review to 19/12/11

Future Prospects - 18.30 Kem 08/12/11

Future Prospects - 13.00 Sou 06/12/11

Future Prospects - 19.20 Wol 03/12/11

Future Prospects - 14.55 Lin 02/12/11

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